McHenrySnow

5 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I like this look. Would be nice if those of us further north finally got in the action. Someone said golden area was north of I-80, but it's especially been good the past two weeks between I-90 and I-80. 

I'd love a Friday night storm and would gladly take GFS/GEM/UKIE totals. Won 't buy any high ratios until the event is much closer.

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Heavier band seems to have set up between Elgin and Aurora

You lucked out and at least got in the heavier band for a little while. I'm too far north. Definitely no big flakes here.

Incredibly frustrating to keep barely missing out. Yes, they're minor events, but they add up, as many of you can attest and with this cold and dry pattern, any amount is appreciated. 

I could definitely see the band setting up a bit further north, especially the further east you go keeping everything Purdue mentioned in mind. Still won't allow myself to hope for more than an inch at this point. RAP and HRRR have been consistent with some better snows across McHenry and Lake than originally forecasted (marginally). 

WWA issued by LOT. Does not include northern tier. 

Just up here waiting impatiently, but happy to hear about the ratios. HRRR and RAP give me reason to be optimistic I can get at least an inch this afternoon. Temp is up to a balmy 8º.

8 minutes ago, Baum said:

mic drop: 

BE WEARY  
OF ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN THAT PLUNGES OUR TEMPERATURES FURTHER  
OR DUMPS INCHES OF SNOW NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE   
IS PRETTY DARN VAST. FOR EXAMPLE, THE IQR OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE 500 MB  
HEIGHT SPANS NEARLY 300 M OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND,   
SIGNALING ANYTHING FROM A DEEP TROUGH TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE   
IS IN THE SOLUTION SPACE. SO, GRAB YOUR FAVORITE HAT, GLOVES,   
HEAVY COAT, AND SNOW BRUSH WHILE FORCING A SMILE ON YOUR FACE  
DURING THIS UNDENIABLY WINTRY WEEK.-LOT

While I definitely prefer more snow than I will get this week, I'll still have a smile on my face since it will feel like winter. #stoptheantiwinterbiasofweatherreporting

17 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Keep hope the GFS is wrong. Not so improbable. Ukie and GEM look promising 

Keep hope? Are you feeling okay? lol

8 minutes ago, Baum said:

Yes. As a met I'm sure you know the possibility of a shut out with the arctic overtaking the pattern with suppression exists. But I'll take my chances with that given the ingredients exist for some decent events compared to the pattern from 12/1-1/16.  Can't win em all.

At least we have snow on the ground, but, yes, suppression always a concern, especially with cold of this magnitude. 

7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

This one is fading away as well

Our promising week is quickly becoming cold and dry. 

9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well this is sounding disappointing. Having a feeling the very dry antecedent air mass is a big culprit. Saw where RH wasn't quite ideal in the snow growth zone. 

I was hoping for 2" yesterday and now I'm hoping for 1" and that seems unlikely. I just want to have enough to shovel and increase the size of my snow piles! 

25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Pixie dust with a fairly bright sky, dusting so far.  Has the look of a DAB+ type event.  Perhaps flake quality vastly improves in the more enhanced bands, like down by Galesburg atm.

Quincy doing pretty good from the looks of it. St. Louis NWS posted some photos, very low visibility. 

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Lol @ the WxBell Euro kuchera.  50.3" near the IA/MO border.

 

Sounds plausible this winter......lol.

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Happy early birthday! I wish I had a Winter birthday lol. Mine is May 8. Spring, my least favorite season of course lol. Although it did snow last year on my birthday for the 1st time I can remember.

May 5th here. Spring is my 3rd favorite season, so I understand. Always wanted snow for my birthday. Never seen flakes on the day itself, but close. Saw several birthdays hit 90º growing up in Kentucky though. 

NAM is wetter, quite a bit. 

2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

21z RAP looking naso good

Looking more realistic, I'm afraid.

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Pivotal Kuchera

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

more reasonable, i don't actually expect 2"

2" of fluff or bust. 

GFS laughs in our faces. Still pushing the next system more. 

1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Id say overall you're sitting pretty good.  Relatively speaking. 

Cary said we hadn't overachieved all winter and that's true. Not sure how snow depth is related to that or why you chose to single me out. FFS, I said I'd be happy to take 2". lol

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Award for most weenie 12z run goes to the WRF-ARW

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

And NMMB is a heartbreaker for north of 88. 

3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

What's your snow depth at now? 

high single digits

Just now, Cary67 said:

2" call. Far NW burbs haven't overachieved much this winter

Ain't that the truth. That being said, I'll take it. 

Front is through, finally. Fluff falling, wind blowing, and temps dropping.