McHenrySnow

Just now, Cary67 said:

Had some hope from the HRRR and RAP that eastern McHenry Co might fare better in the 5-6" range but sometimes just doesn't go your way. Lake component factored in huge for Cook Co. as better synoptic snows fell further south and east. Hard to say it hasn't been our winter when looking at snow over my mailbox that's been on the ground since late December. It's been a really good run just not quite as epic as our friends in the city

As I said, relative to those around us. Everything is relative. And yeah, having not yet hit 30", I'm going to stick with not our winter. The fact Rockford managed to sneak out more is the real kicker. 

2 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Received 2.75" here. 

Looks like our forecasts weren't so bad, eh? I mean, I wanted so badly to be wrong, but this has clearly not been our winter (relative to those around us). 

9 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

I'm satisfied.  Bring on spring!  

As long as the rain/snow line sets up around I-90, then we can both get what we want.

2.25" in McHenry. 

Rockford got more. smdh. 

NAM continues SE shift. 

4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Confident in saying it'll snow more than 1-2" there. Your area should be good for at least the range in the WWA. Consider it a win vs forecasts from a lot of the models a few days ago.

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I will consider it a win if and when it happens. 

19 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Wasn’t McHenry only supposed to get like 1-2”? Eek 

I would not count my chickens before they hatched. 

Just now, RCNYILWX said:

NAM is maybe a hair southeast, mainly a bit weaker, which resulted in less QPF and snow.

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And the weaker it ends up, the further east it will be as well. 

6 minutes ago, 500 mbvort said:

To me it looks the same as 12z.

To be fair, I'm only going by QPF which is much lighter across Iowa and W Illinois. 

18z NAM is east. Let's see if it's the beginning of a cave. 

2 minutes ago, frostfern said:

It's like spring-summer frustration with the t-storms.  Missing the bullseye by 10 miles and getting a nothingburger doesn't usually happen in the winter.

While I'll admit I'm aggravated by missing thunderstorms in the summer, especially if we need the rain, i'd rather miss a thunderstorm any day of the week. 

3 minutes ago, frostfern said:

It's nerve-wracking being right on the northern edge of this thing.  Sharp cutoff somewhere between MKG and GRR.  Already got 2" of new powder from light snows last night.  I'll be happy if this next batch can drop a quick 6 inches.  Depends on how fluffy it is.  DGZ is plenty deep if a nice back-edge band sets up as the system wraps up tonight.

If it makes you feel any better, you've already got 2" more than I've got. 

Just now, miamarsden8 said:

It's also nerve-wracking to be on the eastern edge of this thing. The further west it goes, the less optimistic I'm getting.

Family in WKY were in the bullseye and it's been pouring sleet there for the past few hours. There's certainly cause for concern.

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Go ahead and add an * to that ORD.

Already likely too low.

Why are you the only competent snow measurer at ORD? 

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

12z Euro has 4.7" here off of 0.18" precip on the new WXBell kuchera.  That's 26:1 LSR, which seems a bit far fetched.  I guess we'll see.

Do you mind posting? 

26 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Globals still wanting to keep this east. Gfs way east and gem more east than it was before. Will nam sniff out another nw trend or will this one be truly east this time? That's the million dollar question. 

Euro also continues to be east. Ukie maybe less so than it has been? Hard not to assume, at this point, the NAM is wrong, but I'll going to try and keep hope alive at least until this storm gets out of the way. 

12 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

Calling 4 inches with anything more being a pleasant surprise. The distance from the west border of Kane County to the lake is ~40 miles and from my house to where the yellow starts in NIL is only around 10 miles. The snowmaps SE (essentially all of Indiana) are a beauty as well. 

Hoping for 3" here. Need to get off the boards so I don't have to subject myself to the punishment. 

Just now, MoresnowthanU said:

Good luck to everyone. Have only seen one double-digit snowfall in Evansville since moving from Central City, Kentucky. 

Born and raised in Greenville. Good luck! 

I am, seriously,  very happy for a lot of you in Indiana and especially western Kentucky who have had absolute trash winters the past few seasons. My family looks to be in a great spot in Kentucky. They deserve it. 

Just now, Hoosier said:

You could be Galena.

Didn’t they do well during the same time our Iowa buddies kept getting plastered? 

38 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Another quality post. I am convinced you could get 2 feet only on your property and still find a reason to complain. 

All of the guidance has bumped NW starting overnight. The NAM was throwing more precip NW spreading out the gradient, but it wasn’t an outlier in terms of the evolution. If it had a Madison special, then it’s an outlier. A 20 mile difference in snow is within a reasonable margin of error is in line with other guidance. 
 

 

I’ll keep note of your quality posts from here on out, bud. We easily have the least amount of snow in northern Illinois and yes, that’s frustrating. I’d love to get a good storm, but that’s not happening and I don’t need to pretend otherwise to make you happy. Cary routinely makes posts similar to mine yet no one bats an eye (no shade to Cary personally, we get along great). Enjoy your weather without trying to make other people feel like crap. You might not like that I’m not easily aboard the hype train but I don’t like the personal digs you make at me and others. To each their own I guess. 

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

What about the GFS v16 with about 5 for you, are u not buying it?

 

lol

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

yes but the 18z GFS doubled your snowfall and the 18z GFSV16 stayed the same so nice trends for you if u ignore the NAM

Yes, the GFS has us around 2". The NAM was the model everyone was hyping earlier, when it was an obvious outlier. That's why I mentioned it. Not to mention the GFS literally just came out. 

Just now, mimillman said:

Your climo is better in November and December and worse in Jan and Feb, that’s how it goes 

What's about to happen in the city is incredibly rare. It's just amusing to me it happens the first winter I leave and then I come out here and ruin Cary's snow chances to boot. I'd move to the north pole, but i'd hate to accelerate the melting of the arctic even more. 

I would also say our climo isn't much different from yours at all, aside from the lake influence. Lake County is literally 5 minutes away and has been doing fine. 

48 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Thinking without any lake bail out here and chances for further NAM SE  recorrection ticks  1-2" still looks good.

18z NAM took about 5" of snow away with it in our neck of the woods. Now we've got to hope the RGEM is right. lol Yeah, we were right not to bite on the "nw trend" actually benefiting us. 

Remember when I moved up here, in part, to get out of the city so I could actually get some snow? hahahahahahahahaha