McHenrySnow

51 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Question why are they outliers when u have the GFSv16,GEM, RGEM , UKMET and both NAMS pretty much in agreement? They could all be wrong but please back up your statement.

Lol, none of those models are as far west as the NAMs. The GEM/RGEM are somewhere in the middle, but the NAMs are, without a doubt, the furthest NW. 

12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Will go 1-2" for here/QC.  NAMs showing 3-4" but not gonna fall for that this time lol.

NAMs are obvious outliers. 

20 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Will go 1-2" unless more NW shifts occur

Certainly no reason to expect better up here.

24 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I think the main source of uncertainty is over the the North Pacific.  It has good potential to trend NW if it comes off the Southern Rockies strong.  The pattern won't really be the same anymore over North America since the cold dome will be modifying some just because they days are getting longer.  Models just aren't sampling the source region for the upper jet streaks diving down the west coast very well.  It's not really an issue just affecting one model.  All of them have been sketchy lately at long range.

Or any range for that matter. 

27 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Nov 2015 storm a perfect example 

And November 2018. 

Just now, Baum said:

Am I blind or is the low over Indy which is normally ground zero for Chicago hit? That said, one model 3-4 days out. Enough to keep me interested.

You're blind. lol

3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Thought it came back west a bit from the 18Z

Not at all. 

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

one run is not a trend.

Second run now. Not to mention it's the GFS. Not to mention the Ukie and Euro disagreed. 

GFS trending east. Blah. 

36 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm fine with Ohio getting this one if IL gets the late week storm. After that, I think I've honestly just about had my share. I know, I know, I guess that means I'm not a crazy weenie after all. I love snow but honestly I can only take so much of not being able to wash my car. 

bad weenie!

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

After tonight/tomorrow's little 1" duster it looks CAD for quite awhile.  Think I'm getting more and more ready to start thinking about spring.  

I hate spring, but I can relate to being sick of the CAD. 

22 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

RFD had 1.1" last night. Had .5" here. How do you do overnight?

0.75" - we had quality dendrites for maybe 20-30 minutes between 10 and 11 and the rest was dust. We can't win. 

Woodward, Oklahoma closing strong. Solid winter for them.

5 minutes ago, Baum said:

^optimists counterpoint; you could get 15" over the next 7 days.

I do honestly try to be optimistic, it's just not in my nature. That's REALLY optimistic, though! 

6 minutes ago, Baum said:

 excellent under the hood discussion by the LOT forecaster. Even baked in the possibility of an over performance.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of you who have continuously gotten snow this week do okay. I'm hoping for an inch. Have yet to see an inch from a single event this week, so it might be a fool's errand. Regardless, it's nice to have snow on the ground and I'm trying to just come to peace with the fact that that's as good as it's going to get this winter. 

At this point I can either laugh or cry. I’m laughing maniacally. 

5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Congrats! Still not a flake all day here in SW Lake County. Hopefully that changes tonight. 

We're in the same boat. So sick of everyone else getting snow. lol My snow envy knows no bounds and these boards don't help. 

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

returns in IA look nice, should be solid for northern tier

I hope this one is ours, after missing out on the others. I've been jealous of all the fluff further south piling up this week! 

Away from the lake clouds it has warmed up big time. 18º already, 5º above forecast high. Mid-February sun means business. Excited for tonight. Yes, I'm excited for what will hopefully be at least an inch of fluff tonight. 

Just now, DaveNay said:

Out here in corn country, I judge snow cover by how much corn stubble is still visible. In 25 years, I can't recall it being this deep for this long, ever. There is barely a corn stalk visible in any field.

my new favorite term 

You southerners appear to be getting your wish, NAM is further south this morning. It's your winter, no doubt about it.

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z NAM looks decent.  On a personal level, I hope it's a bit too far north.

On a personal level, I hope it's spot on! 

6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

KLOT (not ricky)
 

First, confidence is increasing that a period of steady snow will
occur Saturday as the diffluent right-entrance region of the upper-
level jet stream passes overhead. Ensemble QPF from the ECMWF ranges
from 0.10" along/south of I-80 to 0.25" along the IL/WI state line.
A quick gander at forecast low-level thermodynamic profiles gives
credence to very fluffy, perhaps "overperforming" snow ratios with
the snowflake growth layer extending well beyond 10,000 feet at
times. Plus, a trajectory off Lake Michigan may provide a boost of
low-level moisture. Taken altogether, Saturday may end up yet
another day to take it slow on the roads due to reduced visibility
and accumulations of snow. The current forecast brings 1-2" snow
totals from the Kankakee River Valley to I-88, and 2-3" totals from
I-88 to the Wisconsin state line. Adjustments upward may be needed
in later forecast packages.

Is a LOT AFD worth reading if Ricky didn't write it? 

Gonna ride the NAM hard. 

I know which team I'm on. ^