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stormdragonwx

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Everything posted by stormdragonwx

  1. stormdragonwx
    But I will say the snow depth parameter is pretty absurd across the models Sunday eve as the system moves out.
  2. stormdragonwx
    This is valid too. This could quickly go from potentially historic snowfall to a crippling ice storm. Watching cautiously.
  3. stormdragonwx
    Indeed I suspect Lucy is really trolling hard with the football tonight. I remember the storm last Feb was putting out crazy amounts but in reality it was just 6 inches. Not that I was complaining. lol
  4. stormdragonwx
    IIRC there was excessive warm air advection the day of the event that affected it. The models didn't handle it well for sure.
  5. stormdragonwx
    ^yeah I was about to post a comment on this. During the event Saturday it looks like a lot of us might not make it out of the teens for HIGHS. Hence the 20-25:1 snow ratios being hinted at.
  6. stormdragonwx
    We should get a better idea on the strength and track by tomorrow night once the data gets sampled onshore. Could go either way.
  7. stormdragonwx
    To add to this, here's the SGF AFD Chat If its cold enough we may see 25:1 ratios.
  8. stormdragonwx
    Yeah its definitely a setup we haven't really seen in quite some time with several potentially convective waves of winter precip. We will have to see if the pattern holds as we get closer. Still got 4 days. Trying to temper my expectations. lol and I don't want this morphing into a big ice storm. We are in peak climatology for those.
  9. stormdragonwx
    Lol I'll be that guy. "Lucy's Football has been firmly placed."
  10. stormdragonwx
    Those flurries were fun. Though it will be sad if that's our whole winter right there.
  11. stormdragonwx
    *Might* finally see something late next week. We will see.
  12. stormdragonwx
    Back to reality in Fayetteville. Went from 74 to 46 in an hour.
  13. stormdragonwx
    64 degrees this Christmas morning at my house. A/C even kicked back on. Gross.
  14. stormdragonwx
    Looks to be trending in the wrong direction for holiday snow lovers. Might be another somewhat warm and dry Christmas this year. But we still got enough time for this to flip but not much. The window is rapidly closing.
  15. stormdragonwx
    Looking like a snoozefest for the next 7-10 days or so as most of the winter activity gets confined north of I70. Though the CFS has a dream scenario painted out for White Christmas lovers with a storm moving through the area on Christmas Eve/Day with a deeper dip in the NW flow pattern. Will have to watch to see if that trends as it gets closer.
  16. stormdragonwx
    Finally got some flakes flying at 4am here in Fayetteville.
  17. stormdragonwx
    Still waiting to see if anything happens here in Fayetteville. Looks like the snow band is evaporating down here. lol
  18. stormdragonwx
    Some high-res models showing potential for some snow flurries for Thanksgiving over parts of NW AR and SW MO. We shall see what happens. Classic winter NW flow pattern.
  19. stormdragonwx
    Indeed NWS TSA is jumping on board.
  20. stormdragonwx
    Euro is coming on board with the GFS with some interesting weather looking possible around the Nov 28th-29th and Dec 4th-5th timeframe.
  21. stormdragonwx
    And now we got potential record highs coming this weekend! lol
  22. stormdragonwx
    First widespread hard killing freeze looks to be hitting the area this weekend. Some could even see their first teens for lows come Monday morning.
  23. stormdragonwx
    Since we are almost into November, I figured I would go ahead and start this new thread for the 2025-2026 winter season. Current ENSO indicates a weak La Nina to Neutral type winter. Snow and cold forecasts could go either way. Feel free to share your thoughts and forecasts for this upcoming winter.
  24. stormdragonwx
    Only picked up 6-7 inches here in Fayetteville. Was hard to measure accurately due to the blowing snow. So the crazy forecast trend did bust as I suspected. Dry air intrusion along with warmer midlevels turning the precip into a snow/sleet mix at times cut down on totals quite a bit.
  25. stormdragonwx
    I'm here in Springdale and I think we got warm air aloft messing with our snowfall. Its changed to a snow/sleet mixture. That's gonna kill totals.
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