stormdragonwx

Snow has reached Drake Field in Fayetteville as of 4am. Temp at 33 degrees which seems cooler than what was forecasted this soon. Gravette, AR reported the changeover about an hour ago with heavy wet flakes. TSA also updated their Decision Support graphic.

The model data is lining up with the currently ongoing precip in KS. Another good sign if you want the snow totals to verfiy. In fact, moderate to heavy snow is occurring already just north of Wichita on GR3.

Amended my above post. Crazy to note too that rural areas like Kingston and Jasper in Newton Co, AR could see upwards of 20". EDIT: The WRF is showing 30" lol

You guys beat me to it. lol Interesting development being less than 12 hours out now. 8-15" being shown over the metro part of NW Arkansas via the RAP, 3km NAM, and HRRR 00z runs. The 12k NAM is a bit more conservative showing 4-7". There's also talk of convective banding/thundersnow developing over this area. Feb 9th, 2011 all over again?

^Yeah I think this system is even confusing the forecast data algorithms and not just meteorologists. Been seeing odd anomalies going on with the short range convective models like that. Same with weird spotty accumulation maps being rendered.

HRRR showed under an inch for much of NW AR and NE OK, it will need to be watched closely but myself and my colleague at the TV Station I chase with is considering it a fluke ATTM. This low still has a lot of potential still to overperform.

A word of caution. Some of the data is showing a nose of warm air filtering northwestward from the I-40 corridor which could kill totals for much of NW AR and E OK. This could be our Lucy for those in this area. Shouldn't be an Ice Storm threat but could still be 33 and rain.

Hopefully that gets extended west.

Yeah been burned too many times personally in the past, its why I have always remained cautious ever since this system showed up on the data.

Same with TSA. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDTSA&e=202201122039 Though what I always do is go over all the modeled snowfall amounts, then average them out and thats the ballpark range of what you may be getting for the forecast area. If the pattern holds an average of 3-5" seems plausible over much of the area.

Yes it might just be the natural cynic in me as I've seen it happen so many times before but I think this weekends winter storm has huge bust potential. I remain cautiously optimistic. Yes all the models are starting to go bonkers in our favor but the system is still offshore. Once it gets sampled it could go either way. The next 24-48 hours will definitely tell the story.

I'm sure the Fayetteville fizzle will play into this as well. lol

Got a dusting to an inch in spots over here in east Fayetteville. Its somewhat hard to say since snow is blowing around on the ground quite a bit. Still coming down as of this writing.

Wearing shorts and sandals on Christmas Day as I am right now is just wrong... yet here we are...

Yeah so far it's been depressing.

Yeah really disappointed in this winter so far. Up here in Fayetteville local TV mets are forecasting a high of 79 for Christmas being possible. Thats just wrong. I really hope things turn around in January and we finally get some winter storm systems but I think the same thing was said about December and we saw how that went.

Eh lol it's all good. I'm over it. Some people simply lack reading comprehension and critical thinking. Not the first time I've seen it over there. I was just kinda surprised with the reactions considering recent events. I mean we did kinda have something historical.

Yeah the winter outlook is looking pretty bleak to close out 2021. Winter? What winter?

^That must be outdated. There was an EF1 confirmed in Branson West, MO.

Congrats on your no snow streak finally ending! That was totally crazy to be this late in the season.

I have apparently started up a sh*tstorm over on this site regarding the above statement. Gotta love the general public. These are probably the same people that throw fits over severe weather coverage breaking in on the TV. EDIT: lol They banned me so I couldn't respond after sending some personal insults my way. Apparently dissenting opinions are not allowed. https://themeparkreview.com/forum/topic/134-silver-dollar-city-sdc-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=1907522

I am aware and not discounting those facts. I am just saying it could have been really bad for that area too. 20k people jam packed outdoors with little means to take shelter or evacuate in a timely manner would be devastating in its own right.

I made a similar post in the main Severe WX discussion thread in another part of the forum about last nights storms, but I figured I'd post here too as it is relevant to this regional discussion. NWS SGF did confirm an EF-1 tornado near Branson West, MO. Fortunately it dissipated before moving further east towards the Silver Dollar City Theme park. I can only imagine what kind of disaster that would have been if it had sustained itself and hit SDC with Christmas time crowds present as It was estimated there were roughly 20K people on site, even as an EF-1 tornado I could see it being a mass casualty event. These storms were moving between 40-60 MPH so there would be little time to react and evacuate the park with those crowd numbers. I really think theme parks and stadiums need to close and cancel events on days where there's severe weather in the forecast. (even if SDC/Branson was on the western fringe of the outlook area) https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSSGF&e=202112112042

I am growing more certain the tossed freight train (the individual cars average 200 tons) and the tossed and crumpled water tower with the weight of hundreds of thousands of gallons of water that even had its anchored concrete footers ripped up along with it will give a 5 rating. Also regarding the post about the confirmed Branson West, MO tornado, a big amusement/theme park called Silver Dollar City is literally right down the road from there. They had 20,000+ people on site for their Christmas event when this was going on. If that tornado had not dissipated and moved towards the park that could have been another mass casualty event right there even with the low EF scale rating. With the storm speeds averaging 40-60 mph there would be no time to evacuate the park with all those people jam packed out in the open.

Sorry guys, I jinxed it.