Modfan2

Sorry for the IMBY question but what is the timing of the rain this afternoon in SNE? 

What a fantastic weekend thusfar; hoping rain holds of until later this evening.

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I see MVL has been bouncing around 57-64F depending on solar the past two hours.  Lots of variation in the 5-min temps.

59F at 12:30pm and 61F at 1:30pm.  Dews of 44F.

That’s some legit fall-like airmass.

I have 74F and low humidity in NE CT.

Just checked out the new Tree House Cider/wine place in Woodstock; spectacular day to be outside!

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cocadoodledewlessness. 

Visiting In Killingly for the weekend, almost cold on the deck last night! (Clearly blood has thinned too much). Looks like a few great days ahead!!!

20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

0Z guidance was a snooze fest 

Lots of recurves; still plenty of time to watch.

55 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I see no reason why we've been so inactive. 

We have a La Nina, we have strong waves leaving Africa. The only possible thing I think could be the Saharan Air but that is a factor every season. Even 2005 had a huge amount of dust in the Summer during that hurricane season.

I do recall seasons like 1998, 1999 and 2000, which have been seen as analogs to some this year, where the season really took off in September.

 

 

 

 

Not sure if there are analogs or prior season, but my 8 years in S FL this is by far the driest rainy season/summer we have had with areas from West Palm to Vero having rainfall deficits of 7-10” . Maybe 1999 being drier?   Not sure if that is all SAL related or correlated to a quieter than normal Atlantic season?

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Endless summer !

 

Stein Stein Mr America Stein, drove the Chevy to the Levee but the Levee was dry, those good old boys wells went dry.
This’ll be the day the lawn dies!

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

12z EPS—It’s a pretty strong signal that this doesn’t really get going until the Antilles, but development likely happens sooner. 

Not really thinking about track at this point.

Lots of hooks right in that suite

How is next weekend looking, does that cool shot have any legs? 

How is the cell further east; noting rotation with that as well 

Is that Ashford cell hooking?

Decent cell near UConn/Ashford with some rotation 

First Novice all nighter was I think Dec 92 heavy wet snow storm, making the 15 drive from my girlfriends at 11pm took 2 hours due to snow and trees down everywhere and having to reroute.

Hurricane Irma was the last; first Hurricane since Bob, and first Fl Hurricane experience.

How is next weekend looking? Planning a trip up to see family (maybe house shop?) and hoping for good weather 

While a good drink for many, was it to much to fast to soak in (other than those areas that had flooding rains)? During brush fire in Marlborough Ma las week they said fire was running in the root line 6-8” deep and it was power down to that level.

21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We’re starting to hone in on the August 29-first week of September period for a MDR storm (Multiple models showing development of the same waves in this period and strong ensemble support). Will be a race to see if we can get a name by the end of the month, but suffice it to say, I expect September to start much differently than the way August has gone. Interestingly, the 00z GFS developed that disturbance coming off S America that the Icon has shown for a couple days, before the AEWs in question develop. There has periodically been some ensemble support for this system, though shear in the eastern Caribbean looks less favorable than other parts of the basin (But it avoids the suffocating SAL). Something to watch as it’s getting into closer range at least.

Lastly, I haven’t given up on the GOM this weekend yet. There looks to be at least some form of an active west Caribbean gyre and models have periodically shown some development out of this feature. Very low chance at this point, but it’s something to watch on the models as we get through this week.

On another note, the global dry spell for hurricanes/typhoons was ended this morning in the western pacific.

Let’s see how much dry air impacts waves coming east

46 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I don't know how anyone can live in that. I hope you get some kind of a non dangerous tropical disturbance to get some showers

It’s going to be nice when I am officially back in the SNE area.

8 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I'll be in Orlando that weekend might get a chance to see something

I’m going the other way and coming back to New England 

2 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

Thanks for the info. I thought it was only around 20. What a difference 90-93 with 60 dews as opposed to the same highs with 70 dews

We are down 7-10” of rain here on the S FL east coast from Vero to West Palm in the middle of rain season!! It has been days of 90-94 with dews of 75; I’m done! 

2 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Cleanup and power restoration took one to two weeks after Bob. I think a cat three it would take 2 to 4+ weeks to clean up and restore power. 

I went to the FL Panhandle for Cat 5 Michael and some lessons learned were cities and towns need to have a plan to open roads. Any grid repair up north will take time due to a few days of isolating what is damage and best way to start repairing. Having tarps for roofs and a people to tarp roofs properly is a big thing.

7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They were solid but they hit just north of me , they hit basically the same area near Martin county and up toward Sebastian inlet , the huge million dollar plus units that fill towers that line a 75 mile stretch from N Miami to west palm are overdue 

Living here in Martin County, Cat 5 Dorian Sat 76-80 miles to our east and destroyed part of the Bahamas; that’s as close to a Cat 5 I want to be!!!  
 

Growing up in ORH County for Gloria and Bob; New England will have considerable tree damage from a Cat 1 or greater. Many are unprepared 

Meanwhile in E CT

4 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

Looks like an active pattern ahead in the tropics

Lock it!

Stein Stein everywhere Stein.Drying up the community drying up the pines. Burn this burn that can’t you see the Stein!

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They’ll be some welcomed  rains here. Nobody forecasted 5”. That’s all I said. 

Maybe in se Mass,  meanwhile DIT is digging his third well for drinking water!