wxmvpete

At 5:30, I measured 3". If I had measured maybe between 4:30 and 5, I may have sqeaked out a tiny bit more. But it compacted fast.

42/42 here between Westminster and Manchester (elevation 1,000ft). I've picked up 1.26" of rain today.

This is a great point to bring up. Here is a chart that shows the number of days where KBWI measured >1" of snow between Nov 1 - Apr 30 (PoR dates back to 1950-51). A couple disclaimers-- I added Nov since there were a handful to pick from, and April actually never measured 1" at any point at BWI, but there have been cases where the elevated terrain to the west has managed an April snow so I wanted to include April. The table I sorted shows the most days with >1" (2002-03 was the highest with 12 days, 8 of which came in Feb). I added a 20-yr moving average to the graph. After last year's "winter", the latest 20 year moving average shows BWI only sees 4 days during that stretch with >1". Think about that. When accounting for all those months (NDJFMA), which comes out to 181 days (not including leap years), only 4 days on average does BWI see >1". Of course, the higher terrain to the west will be higher, but it speaks to how everything genuinely needs to come just right that roughly, on average, only 2.2% of the 181 days in NDJFMA see >1" along the I-95 corridor. That's why so many care. We know these opportunities don't come together often for simply 1" in many cases. That's why every inland cutter, late forming storm, or suppressed storm track can sting. So why do I post these sad stats on this snow-starved forum? This is climo in essence. Dating back to Nov 1950, there have only been 12 November days that BWI picked up over 1" of snow. Including 2023, that's 73 Novembers, or 2,190 November days. And BWI got over 1" on 12 of those days. Which is less than 1%. December the numbers start to gradually go up from there, and March is still considerably better than November. As we know, January and February are the top months. I added a chart with the number of days BWI reported >1" going back to 1993-94 for fun. So, patience. There's plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but a handful of other reasons to keep expectations in check. But it's early (as I'm trying to convey). There's a lot more of the season to go, and being patient, kind, and courteous to others will hopefully allow for healthy discussion for a season that should provide us with plenty of model watching. Cheers!

I am just west of Snydersburg and about a mile east of MD-27. I refer to it as living in the middle of the triangle that Manchester, Westminster, and Hampstead create. I noticed those marginal events a couple times late last winter already. Interested to see how I fare this winter compared to my immediate family (they are near Manassas and Chantilly, VA).

It's a bold forecast, but given the highly unusual atmospheric and oceanic factors at play, you'd think highly unusual events should transpire. That's why I totally get the "all or nothing" type seasonal forecasts I've been seeing. Also, I moved closer to Manchester late last winter and already saw how much that elevation matters. I live right at 1,000ft. Hoping to reap some of the rewards of that added elevation for my first full winter in northeast Carroll County.

Very true. One of the other reasons for this is the style of storm system this is. This isn't a well formed low tracking across the Deep South then going up the coast. It is one 850mb low over the OH/TN Valley that weakens and gives way to development along the coastal front, while intense synoptic scale forcing takes shape and leads to the deepening on the coast. Where these fronts lineup at this range is anyone's guess. I had another tweet in that thread that goes into the 10-90th climatological percentiles at 850mb, that are exceptionally wide ranging across the region. It highlights how far we have to go before we really see truly what kind of cold air there is to work with. All that said, my main point was most major winter storms in these parts will have an 850mb low in that vicinity. However, not all 850-750-500-300mb evolutions are the same and neither are the air-masses. For this range, you could just have several shortwaves that aren't phasing and create a mess. In this case, the main system is well agreed upon to be a highly anomalous, significant storm in California. I recall some of the areas worst winter storms also being a big problem for the West Coast. The pattern itself is interesting. But there's time to see how the thermals and frontal positions come together.

It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!)