Duca892
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Everything posted by Duca892
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FWIW NAM kind of stopped its own bleeding. Still many areas don’t hit the low end of their projected NWS snows, but it as *slightly* better than 0z
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My god this is really becoming a snow bust lmfao
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I will wait patiently for the NAM and plan a meltdown accordingly
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I just really hope DT is not right on this it would be a massive bust. Huge. That 18z NAM run scared me… again it’s just the NAM
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Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres
Duca892 replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
I mean if DT is right and that NAM comes in even worse that’s brutal -
bruh if this corrects even MORE warm… this would be worse than my pessimistic 6-8in call for ABE before sleet
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GFS just again plows the area lmfao
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If that NAM run worked out like that I would quit this hobby... ........until like Tuesday to start it all over again for next weekends possibility.
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legit lol'd
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whoof..
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Just for me personally the hype has died down somewhat because at one point this looked like a pretty massive 14in+ storm for the Lehigh Valley North and now it is looking a smidge drier with most models working the sleet. Still going to be a storm that will be remembered as just the sheer amount of people affected for sure, and it isn't a nothing burger by any means. 8in+ with sleet is a pain in the butt for sure.
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Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for 12-18in. NWS MT. Holly extremely bullish from the get go for the Lehigh Valley.
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GFS has been remarkable in its consistency IMO
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I lol'd, I always remind everyone i don't know jack, but it always feels like in these scenarios warm air aloft is under modeled. I can't remember many times where a mix was involved and it was either delayed further out or didn't happen. Sorry will clean that up because I don't want to creative a negative experience here as I too love this forum
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I think there is almost a diving line in the Lehigh Valley between who sees 8+ and who doesn’t when all the trending and everything is said and done. My expectations for Allentown/Bethlehem etc is these areas top out around 7/8in and then get dosed with slop
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Bound to happen sooner or later. Still sucks lol
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Sorry I thought EURO was swinging better. I’m doing copium trying to breath life into the GFS
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Uh did the EURO OP just do a crush job as well?
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I will play devil's advocate to play into the hopium. Didn't they say those soundings that got added into last nights runs for the GFS would take a few model suites to fully recognize the pattern and new data that was injected into it?
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The GFS doubling down and dropping one of its biggest runs yet is the most GFS thing ever. Gives everyone the sliver of hope before it folds by 12z tomorrow.
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GFS not only doubles down. It is one of the biggest runs it has had for this event yet lmfao.
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Literally was salivating on some chances that are in the pipeline the next few weeks lol
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Kind of the reason why I am so pessimistic is that models keep trending drier with more warm air invading. It simply won't shock me if total snow accum fell in that 6-8in range with that crap sleet on top.
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Getting drier on models too sadly
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MT. Holly still pretty aggressive in their update.
