Duca892

If you followed IMO a seasonal trend of storms trending south before back north next week looks pretty darn ok at the moment for a Snow to Ice to Rain scenario with the GS. Especially if it bumps south before coming back up north

18z GFS keeps Thursday/Friday system south for now. 78hrs out

12Z GFS has the system shunted south. Still there though

We TRACK!

Ralph thank you as always. Supports are there for another quick refresh.

I am going to be the weather junkie that I am.... any maps available from 6z GFS? That thing is in and out in a blink, but could be a nice 2-3in refresh.

Still there on 6z lmfao

Here I am like an addict who can't get enough watching the 18z GFS to see if this still is alive lmfao

Last debbie downer type thing I will say and then I will stop. I have said it before and I will say it again... this failure of modeling is absolutely ridiculous in the year 2026. There is no excuse for it. The GFS sniffs it out which was great... *SOME* models then converge on a solution about 24hrs out... while others also stick to their guns for many people experiencing a nothing burger.... just for about 12-14hrs before start time the Western gradient to shrink and models beginning and even continuing to push East. This was an extremely complex setup no doubt, but there is just no excuse for modeling to be this bad with where we are at in technology. It is wild. Rant over.

Light to Moderate snow here in Coplay PA

This gradient might be an all timer. I think legitimately you could drop some winter storm warnings in Berks/Lehigh while just south in Bucks they might get 10+ inches

Ok I’m past my meltdown and dreams of this being 12in+ to close out winter. Just hoping the Lehigh Valley can get 4-6in+.

My fault on that just seeing this thing blow east at the last second just absolutely sucked

Bust of the decade for many

Can’t be trolling when all guidance is starting to hone in on a massive bust in certain areas…

No one ever wants to admit but his reasoning for a no was sound. Granted he too caved to a storm lol

Mets are going to get incorrectly destroyed on this one for the low totals that will happen. This was a SOB to even begin to forecast

Omfg NAM with its shift east lmfaooo

HRRR is a disaster and if it kept trending that way Warnings would be cancelled by this evening in the LV

I hate to be that annoying downer guy… but holy shit I can’t believe this happening… for models to hit over and over and over for 12in+ at the last second to start finally pushing east and for this to really be a borderline warning event for the Lehigh Valley is truly laughable

It’s why I’ve been very confident in 4-8in for Lehigh Valley and Berks.

Kind of surprised there isn’t more of a concern in this sub about the gradient on the west getting even tighter and shifts east. Unless it’s just more nowcasting than anything

I am kind of real surprised that the winter storm warning for places like Lehigh/Berks has been upped to 10-20in of snow. I think they must real be buying into these short range mesos

0z NAM a rolling?

Actually a met on twitter is also echoing that the HRRR came in less amped lol. Looks damn fine to me