Baltimorewx

I believe that you’re in good shape but we’ve seen time and time again this winter that lower elevations seems to lag with the cold push and finally getting cold enough. I recognize this storm is a little different, but the theme of winter still likely holds true for lower elevations with a little lag in temperatures falling. Still 48 here, I doubt I get to freezing before 11am ish

Changeover in Baltimore metro and especially east side where I am is looking closer to 9-10am to me but we’ll see. Either way I’ll enjoy my pounding rain before the changeover lol

Makes sense that the cold push probably won’t be as fast/strong as models have been indicating…it’s been the case all winter. While still likely a fun morning, I’d be surprised if Baltimore metro saw more than 2” or so.

Im not in until the ICON jumps on board...

The chance for some wet snow in the cities is waning but we knew it was unlikely to be much of a threat outside of the northern spots. Still could be sneaky for some along the PA line, I mean nothing crazy but a wet stat padder on grass for losetoa6, PSU, Mappy etc

Yeah not really saying a flash freeze happens per say but I could see a scenario where north and west of the beltways maybe get some patchy ice formation.

Yeah apparently the EURO and GFS have now flipped..Euro shows a decent backend snow scenario while GFS has backed off...Like I said, Im skeptical of the snow scenario itself but it does look like this has potential to be a powerful front and some pretty quick temp drops.

While Im highly skeptical of a backend snow situation over the weekend, the EURO is now the most aggressive model in showing this....even if it didnt snow, any merit to maybe some sort of patchy ice build up for some locations with rapidly dropping temps Saturday?

Im not pulling this out of nowhere...mainly just referring to PSUs point a couple weeks back. I cant remember the entire post, but he did say how the urban areas are likely experiencing less marginal snow events...or something of that sort anyway, maybe he can chime in to correct what I am wrong on.

This does look like it could be sneaky for the usual NW folks with the nice elevation IF the modeling is correct with some of these precip rates...This will probably be another event that tests the theory that the cities/lower elevation areas cant really do much with marginal events anymore opposed to 20-30 years ago but NW/elevation folks, maybe pad another few inches to yearly totals.

Could be more about allowing time for ice cleanup from vehicles/busses etc and I guess there were SOME power outages and potential road slickness in certain higher elevation spots of counties. I dont have an issue with the delays, now I would have if they closed (I dont even have a kid tho so its more about being a Karen for me!)

Looking out the window I don’t see much in the way of ice accumulation at all even on tree branches or cars. Not a surprise I guess being in Dundalk…where’s my .5” of ice that one model spit out though? Haha. Be careful you northerners though, no slip and falls!

I mean it shows over .50” for downtown Baltimore…that’s more than a bit overdone lol. I get it’s probably accurate for more north and west areas though

Jeez what a terrible model lol

Yeah but if im not mistaken the original headlines were for it beginning 7PM tonight. Now, they have the north and west counties starting now. Looks like they touched on it in the 930 discussion. Strong high pressure is building across Canada this morning, advecting colder and drier air into the area. 12z KIAD RAOB suggests dominant precipitation type would be sleet, but observations are showing light rain with temperatures falling to near or below freezing across northern Maryland, far northwestern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. That coupled with hi-res guidance showing freezing rain over those areas has prompted us to start the winter weather headlines now instead of later today. Impacts overall may be limited until this evening given marginal temperatures and seasonally higher sun angle, but icing impacts likely increase quickly after dark.

WWA has been issued starting immediately for northern counties...probably a CYA kinda deal but its there

Might be more of a case where we just overperformed high temperatures. Id have to look myself but the story might be told better if we compare temps to where the front has already passed..

72 at BWI....some mid 70s in Central-NOVA. 69, here in Hunt Valley, might have to step out of the office for a moment

For sure..I think we need a pretty wild set up to get a significant ice storm particularly E of the blue ridge at this point, along PA line maybe being the exception

Yeah it doesnt seem like much precip if you take out whats falling today

The usual spots north of I70 probably have a good chance of icing with this. Nothing too wild or out of ordinary for these set ups but enough to make it slick. South of I70? Maybe a few pity pingers and an ice patch on a metal railing. Otherwise, the winter window for February seems to be shut

But I want a sleet bomb

18z Thursday

Don’t think anyone expects much snow with storm one…the question is does the ensembles support more wintry precip than the OP did today or no?

Blossoming? Meh..it’s lightly snowing here in Dundalk which is some nice ambience but otherwise it’s essentially a non event around here