WidreMann

I know that the RAP isn't actually the most accurate model, but with it showing the continued trend of warming at the surface and precip further west, it's starting to indicate to me that this is going to be another western piedmont special. It is curious, though, that we can have falling snow, a decent northerly wind and still have BL temps warm. But hey, I've seen weirder things.

Moral of the story: don't bank on snow in the Triangle unless the models show you in the sweet spot ON THE DAY OF THE EVENT. Even 24 hours before is not enough.

Surface temps rear their ugly head and now we have a last minute NW trend. My cynical call is 1.5" tops for S Durham and most of Wake. If it trends anymore, cold rain isn't out of the question.

I'm wary of snows with frontal systems. Just in watching rain events with fronts, we've so frequently underperformed. Usually we don't care, so it goes unnoticed. My suspicion is that we'll have spotty snow showers that will be more solid towards VA. Some places around here will get a dusting or maybe some real accumulation, but unlikely.

The snow hole is honestly amazing. I don't think I've ever seen it be that bad before.

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Always can count on the model showing the least snow for Raleigh being correct.  Synoptics don’t matter.  Seasonality doesn’t matter.  Consensus doesn’t matter.  Pattern doesn’t matter.  If there is a model showing no snow here, count on it!

We are just in a climatologically unfavorable area in the new climate. Coastal areas can still get storms that are suppressed. Mountains and foothills always do well being further to the NW. We are stuck in the middle.

I'm throwing in the towel now. If I look out the window Wednesday night and see snow, great. If not, I'll go to bed like usual. See y'all in a week when we can track our next "threat".

Then again, this is the same trend we've seen the past few days. 06z and 12z move west. Everyone rejoices. 18z backs off and 00z holds. People freak out.

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Shifted east 30 miles.   These are so useless though.

It's just following the 18z NAM.

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

so the 0z gfs will contain the onshore shmampling (ROAB)  right?

Sampling shmampling.

30 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I really want to believe the Nam is onto it, but seriously, how many times have we seen this from that model?  If some other real/legit models came in line, I’d be more inclined to buy in.

How did the 18z Navgem and CMC and JMA turn out?  Anyone know?  And we haven’t heard anything from the Swiss.  Are they still with us?

When have we had a well-organized storm not trend NW? How many times have we watched a snow band that was supposed be over or even east of the Triangle end up well to the NW? Too many times. The times we end up with way SE are when we have a weak, strung-out storm.

1 minute ago, cmh90 said:

Without a doubt in my mind if there is a chance that this precip will fall as as ZR or Sleet then that is exactly what will happen. There is something about the Pamlico river that screws with the weather. I’m trying not to get my hopes up. 

Maybe all the cold we've had will keep water temps (and soil temps) down enough to help y'all out.

54 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

So we've got the NAM and RGEMon our side, what could go wrong!?

And the Canadian. And the GFS, as annoying as it is, is still further west than 00z.

00z last night backed off, then runs today moved west. 00z tonight backs off. Maybe tomorrow will trend the same. All the shortwaves should be onshore now.

23 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

There is no need for people to take regional desires personally, in the storm thread. Of course, Raleigh- and Charlotte-area posters are looking for any hint that the storm may throw precipitation further back inland. This would probably mean that the beaches get rain, but it doesn't mean that Raleigh and Charlotte hate the people who live at the beach.

Those who live at the beach have very little desire to see this trend NW much at all: they are content with where we stand. It doesn't mean that they relish seeing Charlotte and Raleigh miss out on snow and that they secretly thrive off dashing their dreams. Each area naturally wants snow more for their backyards than for any other location. It is what is. Accept it.

If you want more people to post about impacts in your backyard, then look in the mirror and step to the plate. We have a few posters who are very good at addressing board-wide effects, but most people (again) naturally post about weather that affects their backyards. (Your other option is to find some knowledgeable locals and convince them to join this board and share their insights.)

As for me, I'm hoping for a mega-phase with an LP consolidation in the northern GOM that progresses right up the SE coast. Hello, foot of snow IMBY! Of course, that is so incredibly unlikely with this current system that there's really no point in discussing that option in the storm thread. It doesn't mean I won't stop hoping, though. (It also doesn't mean I dislike all you posters east of me.) Hope springs eternal...

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Because this storm is going N-S and there is a lot of cold air, even if it were further west such that the beaches get some rain, they'd still likely get some frontside and backside snow.

5 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Well if we can trend east enough, it'll come back to us on the other side of the globe.

Like a highstorm.

No -NAO and La Nina mean no storms. Period.

MFW we are talking about the German model.

How many weirdly placed shortwaves does it take to remove all chances of snow for central NC? We're about to find out!

Garbage storm in Durham. At the height of the storm, we had some slush. No accumulation at all today.

This was always a long shot. But I expect things to trend a bit NW by the time we get to Friday. Whether it'll be cold enough is quite another question.

It's much better than 12z, which is what I usually look for.

24 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Do these air temperature changes have any substantial effect on the ice melting process?

My impression was that melting is mostly driven by direct solar heating and increased sea water temperature.

In this case, the concern is ice freezing and snowpack. The warmer temps could also be correlated with warmer SSTs, though which drives which (if not both) is a question I am not qualified to answer. In any case, we did see last year how extreme warmth slowed down and at times reversed the sea ice extent trajectory, so I am hesitant to say that the temperatures don't matter.

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Well it did hit lowest extent maximum in the middle of winter, from recorded data, so that is enough in itself let alone the still distinct lowering of ice volume is still quite noticeable. Recently it has been about on par with refreeze nothing too crazy from what I have seen thus far so, rather uneventful but hey thats a good thing so far we will see how it plays out in about a month cause things started weird in mid november.

Arctic ocean temps remain fairly well above normal, though not quite as bad as last year. I suspect we'll see a slowdown in the refreeze. Not calling for catastrophe, but certainly unlikely to be a big rebound.

vs

On 9/22/2017 at 5:59 AM, csnavywx said:

As we move into the re-freeze, the summer pattern is fading and is being replaced by a now-familiar sight: strong to extreme blocking near the Kara/Barents and Scandinavia.

 

Yeah, what the hell is going on? We're having a more summerlike pattern now in mid-late September than we did in mid-late August, and temperatures are almost as warm for it. I've never seen such a large area of anomalously high heights across the midlatitudes and polar regions. It looks like the 2015-2017 pattern is continuing, and at this rate, we might get another warmest year out of 2017, which I was not expecting a few months ago.

2 hours ago, Stradivarious said:

I was just at the northernmost tip of Alaska just outside Barrow on the beach on Wednesday afternoon and there was no ice to be seen...even touched the ocean there...(didn't go swimming)...

To be fair, the median ice extent (15% concentration) this time of year is quite a ways away from Barrow. You have to go back to the early parts of the 20th century before you'd generally see ice in Barrow at this time of year.