WidreMann

12 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Each day I'm more amazed how we ****ed this winter up. Neutral to weak Nino, low solar, record NA snowcover in Dec. Yet we still screwed it up. If we couldn't make this year work you have to wonder if we can make any work again.

Nino failed to really materialize and MJO screwed us. All of these things were sort of options on the table, not great indicators. It all comes down to good blocking around Greenland, -EPO and an active southern stream. Everything else is just proxies on that and not at all guaranteed.

Y'all, that's the difference from previous forecast, not a forecast of +3 to +4.

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I really like Chris Justus, but his facebook says "coldest air in several years" coming after the front, then the wyff outlook shows highs in mid 40s, lows in 20s. Not only did he forget about last Jan, but that's not even the coldest of this wimpy winter.

It is funny, though, how a massive outbreak has now turned into basically a day of seasonably cold weather.

Tuesday snow chances are dwindling for central NC. And then a mild start to February. Only model still showing cold February is the CFS. See y'all next winter!

51 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Some low 40s showing up under this band on radar atm Jacksonville SW towards Gainesville.

Can't help to feel places RDU east maybe see something Frozen.

The mountains will block that.

11 hours ago, RT1980 said:

Learned a lot here this past few weeks and I appreciate it!   90% are weenies, 2% are in the know, 6% have no clue and just mirror others post, the last 2% just have common sense!

A lot of the big mets were betting on a big pattern change too. It's not just the weenies. The MJO collapsed along with El Nino and the SSW failed to propagate downward much. A bunch of maybes turned into nos.

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It looks anafontal to me.  I don’t know how often anafrontal snow occurs there but I’m sure it’s not a common setup

I feel like we had something like that back in 2000.

DRY.

Very cold, but dry, on the GFS so far.

11 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Are you really surprised by that? Even if the epic pattern did materialize we wouldn't have any better chance than we do now. 

I'm not, because when I saw that the PV split failed to propagate downwards and the MJO crashed, this wouldn't happen.

This pattern is turning to shit very quickly.

LR GFS looks a lot better. It's not great by any stretch, but it shows more of a pattern re-load than a breakdown, and keeps general troughiness over eastern NA.

And then the pattern, such as it is, breaks down.

Never mind, GFS sends it down into Florida. Ripe to make a comeback, of course.

We just need a dang high pressure. Apparently, that's a lot to ask for these days.

00z GFS looking alright. If that northern energy can go a little faster (or a lot slower), we're in business.

Just now, SnowDawg said:

Can’t understand how a low bombing out in the Gulf somehow left N GA and W NC pretty much completely dry...

I don't think they are dry. I think they fail to get cold air in time for when the low bombs off the east coast. That's why I'm also skeptical of central NC seeing much of anything.

Lol. I can guarantee you whatever happens, it won't look like that.

Just now, griteater said:

Yeah Euro is in the ICON/FV3/UKMet camp digging the wave nicely.  Closes off the wave in the gulf south of Pensacola at 174.  Warm in E NC though

Yeah, just looking at the 168 frame, it would send it over the coastal plain and only the mountains would likely see any wintry precip.

5 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

The concern is coming from the ensembles breaking the pattern down starting Feb. A trend that started yesterday on the ensembles and the night before on the ops. The MJO is now forecasted stronger in warm phases and loop around in phase 5 just like before and the Pac goes to s**t again. Most probably won't care if we can reel in next weekend or the possible 30-31st threat. But if we screw those up the other thread may get real busy quickly as the epic pattern doesn't look so epic anymore long range. 

The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early.

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Check out MA forum--PAC jet issues

I don't see a Pac Jet on the GFS.

I've more or less given up on a wintry pattern for this area. I mean, that doesn't mean we can't squeak out a storm in one of these cold shots, but the SSW/PV split, -AO, MJO, etc. are all failing to materialize and the models are backing off a true wintry pattern. At least it's not two weeks of a heat ridge, so I'll take that.

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

 

@psuhoffman 

Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future.

NCEP site shows much less support for -NAO/-AO. PNA is near neutral too. MJO went COD and now is back in the unfavorable zones. When is this magical cold pattern going to set up? To me it just looks like cold shots and warmups for the next two weeks. Sure, the CFS shows really cold weeks 2-4, but when do I truly believe the CFS (unless it says warm, then we can trust it).

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GFS plowing bias... Ignore and assume suppression 

Or just the general difficulty with pattern changes. I am worried, though, about the MJO heading back to unfavorable phases. It might put a hold on things till we get into February, though it'll still be cold at least.

00z Euro drops backend snow for next weekend. The models are abandoning us. I'm sure it's fluctuation, but it's annoying.