WidreMann

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Only 46 hrs to go.  What could possibly go wrong?

By the way, QPF is always overdone, temps the day of are always higher, and cold air is always late funneling in.

So we cut that in half, turn more of it into rain, and assume lower ratios. That gives you about 2-3"? Still not bad, I guess.

Just now, packbacker said:

Ummmm....it would be Dec 2000 all over again.  But, RAH is like 30-40 miles from 1" so a SE shift and yes it would suck.  That's something that could change day of the storm.

December 2000 was 1-2 feet across the whole piedmont, all snow. No temp issues. This storm is still only looking like a few inches at best, with some mixing concerns at the beginning. Not a great comparison. Also models are a lot better.

4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Widre is the board pessimist when it comes to snow.  New people and Brick don't like that, but he's right to be that way more than he's wrong.  In this case, as long as this thing doesn't get in here too early and get too amped, I'm not worried about temps.  It's a very cold air mass coming in.  Snow is cold and will have no problem piling up with good rates.

"The BL Temps Suck Guy" -- LOVE IT!

But seriously, we're gonna fight with them Friday evening. Precip always moves in faster than expected with these set ups, so we're gonna lose some precip to the rain monster.

1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

I wouldn't think surface temps themselves will be an issue, but sneaky warm layers elsewhere could be - 925 mb, 750-800 mb.  It seems these levels are most prone to screwing us over in the South, based on my limited experience.

The funny thing is that the NAM has 925 and 850 ESPECIALLY cold. It's surface temps that are way warm.

the squirrels in n. ga. and s,c. were very busy ,the katydids stopped early ,and the turkeys are in big flocks.........looks like a nasty winter in the s.e.

Wrong thread...

Nice research Shaggy/Downeast....... Don't worry about Widreman, he gives everyone a hard time. We overlook him as much as possible. He's still mad because the trees in his yard caught all the snow last winter.

I think asking for more than two lucky analogs was a fair request. Shaggy provided an adequate response to my request.

Thanks. It started out as just a casual conversation between me and downeast(we're brothers) and it just kinda went from there. As we found more interesting numbers the more we looked into it.

This now makes 5 out of 6 years with 30+ tornadoes in the spring with subsequent landfalling tropical systems.

You need more than that. Years with landfalling tropical systems that had no spring tornado outbreak? What constitutes an outbreak? What area does the outbreak occur in and what area does the TC have to make landfall? All you've done so far is not very scientific at all.

I'd rather get suspended than follow the rules about not prematurely calling for a bust. That's right, I'm calling for Irene to miss us or be weak and worthless, and it's still 7 days out. Take it to the bank!