WidreMann

17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I've been sniffing around these forums since winter of 11/12 and this storm is already in the top tier of consistency in the long range compared with previous storms. In my experience, it joins the echelon of 2/13/14 and 1/23/16 in terms of seeing a signal that somebody was going to get smashed 8 days beforehand.

I've heard a theory that sometimes these potential "big dogs" can get sniffed out very quickly and show more consistency than smaller-scale, more nuanced storms. Which makes sense- bigger systems would probably have larger parent shortwaves and would be easier to model. 

In any case, looks like a fun system. One thing I will say that I've noticed- The high is nice, but I'm really not very impressed with thicknesses or the depth of the cold air. We're not negotiating with record cold after, to put it lightly. I would watch trends with mid level temperatures. That being said though, still a very strong signal this far out.

The Euro probably looks the best in the lead up. But no follow up cold air is going to be problematic.

4 hours ago, jburns said:

Why?  This was my 2/2004.

In Chapel Hill, we got like 4" of snow, while areas 10-20 miles further south got...a lot more than that.

Just now, jburns said:

mmmmmmmm

Disagree.

Just now, Queencitywx said:

and you'd get run off for posting 10 day model images. RDale would've had our head. 

Man, that reminds me of when people would post those 10 day MRF images that showed the 850 0-line south of us with precip. It only showed that back it was 12 hours of accumulated precip, but 850 temps at the timestamp. These are cold fronts. Every year a new round of weenies would get excited over their inability to read maps.

I remember when we used to not even really talk about storms until they were inside 120.

2 hours ago, jburns said:

Keeping this thread was never the issue.  It's the next ten.

Maybe a rule that it has to be on more than one global model within 7 days for more than 3 runs or something like that.

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Come on Widre.  You know better than to take these numbers literally.  Cut them in half and still don't expect that much.  Bottom line is we may get a little sleet/snow in theTriangle if this keeps up.  Maybe more.

I'm sure we'll get something. The pattern is right. But I think wintry mix to rain is the most likely call at this point. Or light snow (if it ends up suppressed).

This is as silly as the Euro, albeit in a different direction. The number 18 may be relevant for RDU, but I guarantee you it won't be with regards to inches of snow fallen.

RAH is being too bold.

Ehh, this thread is worth keeping. Doubt the storm will look anything like it does on the models today, but I guarantee someone in the foothills, at least, will get wintry precip.

1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Total whiff for everyone north of Raleigh and GSO. Congrats, guys! You finally get your big one! Long overdue for so many. Glad to see you boys score! 

Dude, it's one run of one model. If this is what it shows 36 hrs before the event, then sure. Right now, I feel like there's a greater chance of a cold rain for central NC than anything else.

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Wow, there's some 20" totals across the northern upstate on the kuchera maps. 

Which model?

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Wow, hour 192 is stunning. tucked into the coast, stalled out. 

Check temps, though. It warms considerably.

192 Euro -- storm stalls, cut off from cold air also. Will be interesting to see surface maps, but this is a weird scenario.

Euro also shows some light snow across southern VA with the clipper. We'll need to watch that one.

I read somewhere that the FV3 has a cold bias. Not sure if that's relevant to CAD events like this.

Damn the Euro at 168 is a beauty for central NC. Miller A suppressed with a nice cold high. Cold enough for snow across most of the state. Can we bank this please?

12z Euro is a lot colder than yesterday (at 850) and colder than the GFS. Makes sense since the trend is to have a stronger cold shot coming in late week.

Just now, Will (little rock) said:

With this much agreement between most of the models? Seems unlikely 

It's happened before. Of course, they bring it back 4 days ahead of the event. I blame the data-sparse Pacific.

12z Euro looks similar at 500 to 12 GFS, with a nod towards its previous run.

I guarantee you this time tomorrow we'll be seeing the models drop the storm almost entirely.

The pattern isn't that hostile. We get a transient +PNA, neutralish NAO and negative AO, with a decent cold shot coming down, with reinforcements. It's not the absolute ideal pattern, but I've seen worse patterns produce wintry weather here.

59 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I'm not sure of the accuracy of the norwegian or aussie models on weather.us but they give me all snow so I like it. 

Of course the Norwegian would give all snow. What else would it give?

21 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

People write their conclusions into studies so that other people can read and debate whether the data in the study supports the conclusions of the study. Otherwise there would be no means of communicating and debating conclusions through the written word.

Almost all peer-reviewed studies will be formatted with Intro, Method, Data, and then Conclusion/Discussion sections or something similar. Formats similar to this for scientific work are taught at a young age to middle school school and high school students (I was a middle school science teacher for a couple of years, I also paid attention in middle school and high school).

I can't believe you are having to explain this on a science board.

Shit run for central NC. No snow, just rain by the time it gets here.