Lots of nice hits for Northern NY. Guess it’s going to depend exactly where that gradient pattern sets up. The way guidance has been this year, I wouldn’t trust any runs until 1-2 days out
yes 1-3 is a solid hit this season. stop looking verbatim. storm track looked good that run. like mentioned before, we dont have cold air. need it to work out just right.
with a lack of cold air, 18z gfs was prob best case scenario for the coast. More west and they torch. East a miss. lots of factors. late phase this run
ICON was classic benchmark. CMC coastal hugger, GFS just SE benchmark. You are right tho, all pretty similar. pretty good agreement at the development of a potent coastal storm this far out. Encouraging!
Yes a surface high would be great. yeh verbatim surface temps are between 33-35 but with such a dynamic strong storm im sure thats isothermal snow for many even down to the coast that run!