NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Well y’all wedding went off without a hitch! Rained Friday before, a lot, but elected to forego a tented ceremony for Saturday instead opting for a (cheaper) tent for the cocktail hour area. Probably a good call as even though the rain had stopped well before the wedding I’m sure it would’ve been wet where everyone was walking around. Have been honeymooning in Antigua and just got home to a beautiful fall day, though it looks like I missed the really cool weather. 46 here this morning, felt amazing especially after having been in the tropics for 8 days! Got to witness the precursor to Delta roll through and actually had some wind damage (broken trees, palm fronds everywhere, and furniture blown into pools) as some heavy squalls pushed through for a couple days. Probably had some 50-60 mph gusts just with the tropical wave moving through! Don’t worry, 80% of the trip was beautiful weather and my wife understands my weather obsession and that I enjoyed watching the heavy weather push through a few times! Hard to be down due to any weather when you’re in a place like that! Back home, looks like we will actually have a fall this year! Leaves have begun turning at my house (maples, dogwoods) and the air has remained off for 2 weeks now. Delta’s remnants factor into the forecast this week though they should be rocketing through. Looks like a return to fall next week after this brief warmup. Can’t wait! Thank you for you all who reached out with the wedding planning on tent decision. It all worked out and was a beautiful day and perfect weekend!
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This is likely a hurricane. If this had another 24 hours over water this system would be a beast, has “the look”
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And.... the basin’s dead
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OK- I need y’alls help today! My wedding is OUTSIDE this Saturday in Louisburg NC. Moisture from Beta will be a factor, but models seem to have trended to a faster passage before a front comes through Sunday. In fact, everything I see seems dry for Saturday afternoon (weddings at 5). My dilemma is I have to let the tenting company know by today if we need a tent for the ceremony. It would be a major eyesore in the front yard of the house and is costly (about 5k). I only want the tent if we need it. What do you all think about the forecast for Saturday afternoon for Louisburg? Currently, I’m leaning towards not having it. Thoughts?
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Looks like a wild race to the W storm. 22 had a lead but 98L is rounding turn 4 with momentum. Going to be down to the wire As I said that, 98L wins! Wilfred is born
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Early fall incoming this weekend. Wow
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Haven’t even looked at this. Judging by that sat shot the race may already be won...
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ACE is a useful tool but it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. We’ve had extremely high ACE years with barely any impacts and low ace years that we’re high impact. It also doesn’t do late blooming storms justice, like Laura. Also, you can have 1 or 2 storms produce basically an entire seasons worth of ace and then have a slow rest of the season.
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Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone!
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I’m going all in on 90L. Bathtub water, decreasing shear, unstable air mass, and location location location. SW gulf is a hotspot for quick spin ups (orientation of geography?). Given the well organized look seen this morning would not surprise me that any additional increase would lead to formation of a TD by tonight. I think 90L wins the race for “W” and I think it could also become our next hurricane. Going to be a painfully slow mover and since no vortex exists yet models have taken up almost every inch of the western gulf for possible tracks. I personally think a long northward trek into Texas is most likely, but will need a defined coc before we know anything on that front
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Yes, it’s a good thing we cancelled this season halfway through August because the globals weren’t picking up on development. I can’t imagine if this had actually turned out to be an active season!
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Teddy should get us there alone
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Honestly we may need a thread for 90L. Looks robust this morning. Models have slowly been picking up on it, albeit weak, but as we just learned: never trust a gulf system. Another slow mover that may eventually work towards the Texas coast
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Hits a brick wall
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The crazy thing about that run, well besides 3 hurricanes lined up in a row, is it doesn’t landfall any of them haha
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3 US hurricane landfalls (all strengthening on approach), one of the strongest storms to ever hit the US, and being on the “N” storm by September 1st sure doesn’t feel like a season bust!!!
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I’m anxiously watching to see what they find. This is a beautiful satellite appearance to not have a closed center. Has expanding outflow and persistent deep convection where you’d think the center should be
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99L looks healthy tonight.
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Could see 2 more named storms in the next 12-24 hours. 99L has some potential to make a run at becoming a hurricane. 90 will be a wave producer on the east coast. Both look robust at the moment for invests. Hopefully 99L continues its rapid pace of movement to decrease strengthening and also flooding issues where it makes landfall in Central America
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CMC solution of multiple TC’s in GOM at same time is quite interesting. No reason to focus on model to model runs though. Signal is there for tropical cyclone genesis and very little to no chance of recurvature with that massive blocking ridge in place. As said above, could get interesting this week.
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Based on satellite and radar, I believe we have another storm off the east coast... Here in Nags Head for the week and you wouldn’t know it. Very little swell, few rain bands moving through.
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Love people declaring the season a bust when we’ve already had over $5 billion in US damages alone, record breaking 10th named storm by August 13, more than a week ahead of 2005, and seen storms popping in even unfavorable conditions. Wait till the Atlantic gets right here in a couple weeks...
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They’ve been atrocious with storms this year. But, they do not get into the meat of the favorable period as advertised by the above posts even in their longest range.
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Wonderful: It`s looking increasingly likely central NC will remain under the stronger influence of subtropical ridging, which will keep the majority of upper impulses north and west of the area. So what look like a fairly wet and active a few days ago, is now looking more like a typical summer day, with the Piedmont trough and strong daytime heating providing the focus for isolated to scattered convection. Cannot rule an isolated severe storm, mainly near the VA border where models show a band of enhanced shear of 25 kts. One negative aspect of the lower rain chances, is that it will be hotter, with afternoon highs back in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices back in the 102 to 105 across the central Piedmont, Sandhills and coastal plain counties. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.
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99L looks like it’s on it’s way to becoming a depression. Very much improved convection overnight
