NorthHillsWx

No chance at cat 3. I’m only saying I do not think this is going to weaken. It’s still (slowly) deepening and sat presentation has improved since this morning. It only has maybe 6 hours until the eyewall is onshore

The problem with this graphic is that the first forecast point, 12 hours, the storm is already inland

This is not the same look delta had coming in. This is a well formed strengthening storm. Conditions won’t permit it to go crazy but this is still strengthening and has just about run out of time for any weakening to take place

On another note, the eye is now becoming visible on the long range LIX radar.

I think it, presentation wise, looks the best as it has yet. The deep convection is more consistent, it had that popcorn look when the eye feature was more pronounced, and it is popping an eye on visible as we speak. Recent trends and forward motion, I don’t see this weakening. I think cat 2, 85 kt landfall

NHC now going with 100mph near landfall

Me thinks intensity guidance is gonna bust low low after what I’m looking at tonight on satellite

Agreed. If this convective flare up persists, it seems it will, those pressures will come down quick. That’s a large amount of heat being expelled into the atmosphere

Pretty amazing we’re looking at our 6th US hurricane landfall this season. I know they haven’t all been blockbusters but Laura, delta, Isaias, sally, and now probably zeta would be bonafide headliners by themselves in any season on this forum. We’re spoiled

New, stronger convection is beginning to fire near and around the center. The next 8-10 hours should give us a good idea where the intensity bar is set, though I still think there are enough positive factors going for this to be a stronger system than what these show. I like 70-80kts

Zeta has developed an extremely impressive outflow pattern since last night. However, convection is struggling mightily near the core and a large moat has developed between the central convection and a cyclonically curved outer band. I believe we’ll see the outer band structure decay over the next 12 hours and an increase in convection over the center as that occurs. SST are sufficient and with the outflow pattern, I do expect strengthening to occur. However, the system took more of a hit over land than it seemed while over land. This spread out structure will take much longer to coalesce and see a quick uptick in intensity. I predict a slowly organizing system to peak and then stay at similar intensity through landfall. Probably on the order of 70-80kts. If this had a better structure I would be concerned of a stronger system but it will take considerable time to reorganize in its current state

Getting in the eyes of both delta and zeta in Mexico with no radar, no well defined eye on satellite, and both being small eyes, is extremely impressive. This storm was ramping up it just ran out of water. GFS is interesting, it deepens the system through landfall. I’m wondering if the increased forward speed will mitigate the time zeta spends in the cooler water/higher shear environment thus negating those weakening factors. The shear vector also is in line with forward motion which could mitigate that impact as well. This to me looks like a “solid” cat 1 landfall in Louisiana

Epsilon looks pretty healthy this morning. In a season where hurricanes have struggled to maintain an eye for long stretches, thus storm is the exception

This is a neat system. Definitely has some frontal look to it in the outer segments but that small core keeps roaring away

It would not surprise me at all if sally was upgraded due to the large amount of damage to use as evidence. Plenty to judge max wind speeds with.

This is that beautiful fish storm 2020 had been lacking. Awesome to watch this system evolve and take advantage of what it was given

Looks like NHC making the upgrade to a major hurricane and 100kts at the next advisory

About the prettiest Cat 1 you’ll ever see

One of the prettiest storms of the season. Going to be another wave producer for the East coast

It’s improved significantly from the advisory time. This is definitely a hurricane now, probably close to your estimate though that would be a massive pressure fall

I’m thinking this will be an 85-95 kt storm. Dry air intrusion going to be biggest limiting factor until it reaches cooler water.

Day late but stayed at the farm in Louisburg Saturday night and woke up to first frost of the year! Bottomed out at 36 degrees at my house, 37 at the nearby airport. Was amazing weather, had a bonfire the night before. Unfortunately we will feel summer like again this week

Gotta hand it to the GFS if this system develops in the western Caribbean, it’s been showing it in long range, now medium range for endless runs now

2020 is determined to paint every mile of coast from brownsville to Massachusetts in some sort of tropical watch/warning