NorthHillsWx

06z GFS brings snow back into central and northeastern NC

I don’t think anyone on this board south of VA border expects anything other than token flakes at the moment.

Overall trends for ***some**** snow have been positive today. The bleeding has stopped, let’s reel this one back in!

I haven’t thrown in the towel for the Wednesday/Thursday system quite yet. The UK/Euro aren’t that far off (too fast) and other models have trended better today (CMC/V16). GFS is warm no doubt but the LP location is good and the storm is still on the models. If we can slow timing down it has a shot. Sure, the big dog storm we saw for several days is gone for good, not happening, odds of a South Carolina National championship in football next season are higher than this becoming a major storm in the southeast, but I think anyone here would take a couple inches of snow. That’s still on the table though not likely. I’ll give it another 24 hrs before I write that off for good

I’ll take CMC. Check please! Not exactly the model suites you want to be in your wheelhouse, when opposed to the king and GFS, but hey, at least some models are showing snow in central N.C. again. I’ll take it more seriously if the euro shows improvement at 12z

39 with 0.04” for me overnight

Para against the world. Wow, I really thought someone from DC to N.C. would get a storm. This thing has sped up and left the cold air behind and also doesn’t allow the low to bomb out and throw all that much precip on its backside. Swing and a miss

It puts the NAM on its skin or else it gets the GFS/CMC/EURO/UK/RGEM again

Drove through a sleet/snow shower near Weldon a flutter while ago

Euro was a dumpster fire for everyone

Way to premature to throw in the towel. Still 3+ days out. If it was showing 1 ft of snow this far out imby I’d in no way feel locked in to that outcome. This is a dynamic system and small deviations in that track could make a huge difference it’s not like the rain snow line is north of DC...

Euro says no snowstorm... for anyone

December 2018 was locked in for a long time. Only questions were on the immediate transition zone but overall it was extremely well modeled

Amen

As some have said, all major players are still on the field. The trends today haven’t been great but we’re not talking about a GL cutter either. Difference in a couple hundred miles means a heck of a storm or nada for most on this board and we’re more than 5 days out. The fact everything is still showing a storm is great. Imo nothing substantial has changed since yesterday which is good at this range

0Z for 12z Thursday Vs 18z for same time

Timing wayyyyy faster too

I think one of the biggest takeaways from today’s guidance is that a more progressive solution (euro) will not work south of Virginia.

Yea but if I was in the Emporia-Richmond area I’d be feeling pretty good about this system. Pretty sure everything has been burying them for a couple days now. North and south of there is the gray area at this point

This was a better run that 06z overall with the storm setup but obviously track ticked north

I think the SW being slightly more amped out west on these last two gfs runs is what may be trending the system slightly further north than 0z. HP looks to be slightly improved location and overall setup is excellent still. That surface low reflection where it bombs out will obviously make all the difference but this will not be a marginal temp ordeal in the snow area. It will be falling into the 20’s with that cold air source. I think for someone this will be a big dog

A sped up system is not in our favor here. It’s January, I would take a daytime hit if that means the HP has time to get in place and deep cold air has time to arrive. Otherwise we’d burn through half the previous before snow could accumulate. Can’t get into specifics yet but the quicker progression is not a solid trend when we are banking on that strong Canadian hp to set up shop and begin to filter in cold air

Mood swings on this board are in a league of their own. Honestly flipping more than the models are on this system

Low of 31 this morning but had risen to 34 when I left the house. At farm in Louisburg precip started as almost entirely as a snow/sleet mix for 15 min and came down moderate. Temp was about 33-34 per the car while that was ongoing. Now 35 with moderate rain and some sleet mixed in still

Same here. If you added up our total frost accumulation this year and counted it as snow we’d probably be at our seasonal average by the end of winter...