NorthHillsWx

Why is there not a NWS radar station closer to Charlotte... Storm definitely has strong mid level rotation

The pineville storm is likely to be the storm of the day. Has a ripe environment in front of it too

I’m failing to see the mode for storm formation outside the current line. There seems to be massive subsidence between the QLCS moving through the western Piedmont and the convention hugging the coast. Yes, there are positive tornado parameters present and some would favor a significant tornado, but by the time that line gets east to where the CAPE has surged it will be well after nightfall. The front remains west and the biggest forcing is along the wedge front. I do believe there will be severe weather, but I think it’s going to be limited to roughly Columbia-Raleigh and relatively nothing east of there. It will not be widespread either. I do think there could be a tornado or two, I’m absolutely not saying we’re out of the woods, but it will not be a widespread severe day

May have to get your spotlight out. I’m not sure it gets here before dark.

I say bust too being they dismissed schools early and many business across the eastern part of the state closed between 2-4 in anticipation of severe weather. Many of these areas may not see any weather (rain) period. That’s a bust when you get to the point of closing schools and businesses and there isn’t a severe report within 100 miles when you started the day in a level 3-4 severe threat.

I’m thinking this busts pretty significantly even for a level 3 severe weather outlook. That line looks to ride the wedge boundary I could see a few severe cell segments in the line but i don’t think there will be enough instability this afternoon further east to induce many showers or storms. There may even be some areas from the triangle to the coast that avoid all rain period until the ULL swings through tonight. Definitely looking like a run of the mill system in terms of severe potential here. We’re at the point, 4 pm, where we’d be seeing cell development outside that line and it’s just too stable. Certainly looking at a very isolated severe event

Storm moving towards jonesville might need a tornado warning

HRRR about the time the line is moving through the triangle

Sun has broken out here and temps have responded. 67 with filtered sunshine

That line moving through the upstate definitely looks a bit more robust than some of the CAMs were showing

Haha watch this do the absolute most opposite flip imaginable for the southeast and transition from a severe event to a surprise snow tomorrow

Noon update: still firmly stuck in the wedge and 57 degrees with fog/mist

Agreed, but it I’ll give RAH kudos- they outlined the limiting factors through their discussions on today’s threat. WRAL mentioned there’s a high bust potential with today’s threat on their morning news. I’m thinking wedge wins out, based on it being 49 and drizzly with a northeast wind and a system progged to arrive earlier than previously forecast, giving even less time to destabilize

Looks like we’ve had multiple tornado touchdowns this morning but thankfully most have been short lived and don’t appear to be too severe

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN EARLY COUNTY... At 746 AM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles east of Blakely, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

Certainly looks to be a TOG near Blakely

Looks like it could be showing a debris signature

Tight couplet just west of Kinsey

Take the high risk piece out of the SPC’s forecast and that moderate risk area was spot on. Not a bad forecast by any means.

Thanks for the graphic pack, I stand corrected on my “most tornadoes occurred outside the high risk area statement.” However, it was definitely along the extreme southern and eastern edges. The vast majority of the area, the absolute highest level they can give for an outbreak, saw little to no severe weather. Definitely gives the impression of a bust

Overall I wouldn’t say it’s a bust in terms of an event, but the area marked as Level 5 (ie where we were expecting a lot of tornadoes and severe weather) ended up being too far west. For the high risk area, yes it in my opinion was a bust. As an event overall, I’m sure there were 20+ tornadoes and plenty of wind damage so I wouldn’t label it a bust as an overall event.

I will wait to see what the morning soundings/radar shows but models and especially CAMs have trended for the wedge to hang on (shocker) and much less elevated convection from roughly the Sandhills northward. Looks like more of a South Carolina/down east event to me. Doesn’t feel like severe weather is on our doorstep either, chilly, foggy, and northeast wind. We’ll see what the morning brings. Also- the afternoon RAH write up outlining the limiting factors was pretty awesome. Not saying we won’t see severe weather but usually here to get a higher end event you need very few limiting factors to be present, and tomorrow has plenty. As for the high risk event busting, it absolutely busted. Overall there was plenty of severe weather and plenty of tornadoes but almost all were outside of the area marked as high risk. To me, that’s a bust.

TDS

Absolutely classic look to this storm. Hopefully it avoids major population centers