NorthHillsWx

December 2018. Then had 6” of puddles in my backyard that evening after all the rain

Pathetic

Not good. 1-3” and we’re on the line

Given the 12z modeling and assuming these trends don’t correct this evening I could see RAH dropping watches west of Wake

12z Euro is a dumpster fire for everyone outside the costal plain. Look away now if you had anything invested in this Triangle west…

I claimed a spot at the first sign of trouble last storm but I’m staying out of the sanitarium this storm, going to stay positive. Oh wait, crap

Almost identical to Canadian

Yuck, talk about lack of saturation through the column. Definitely going to struggle on the outside edge of this. Very cold dry air

This would align with my thoughts, just take 1 inch off every total there across the board

Canadian STILL shows a 2-4” snowstorm for Raleigh. I get it, the trends are concerning. I feel the same way. But even so, all the reliable models still align for a 2-4” snowfall over central NC…. A month ago we’d all be jumping for joy

^^^this. We were looking at a 1-3” sleet storm 2 days ago now, a 2-4” snowstorm with arctic air and high ratios. I see nothing cataclysmic from the modeling at this point. Definitely on edge but we’re still in a good spot

GFS held serve. Beggars can’t be choosers, yes totals are not super high but RDU looks really good for a 2-4” snowfall and temps in the 20’s STILL despite the doom and gloom here. That would be an awesome storm

If y’all wanna see a migration to the sanitarium wait for the RDU folks to have gone through last weekends swing and whiff to the west then have a beautiful setup for days and days only to have the rug pulled out from under them inside 48 hours with a swing and whiff to the east

I will say this- I’m not pushing the panic button yet unless the euro/cmc cave at 12z. CAMs struggle with LP development due to convective feedback and we really aren’t in the timeframe thar is considered to be their wheelhouse yet. The 6z euro and 0z Canadian had actually trended very favorably from their previous runs. Definitely more on edge than 24 hours ago but still feel like central NC-east is in a good spot

A VERY good analog of this system in the January 28 event last year. Arctic front with late LP development along it. This storm has colder air to work with but dang the Synoptics line up incredibly similar to this setup and the snow map is very similar to what modeling is showing

An amazing run for that area. Just hours and hours of light-moderate snow. Would be an incredible event

I’ll be honest- this is a tough one. We’re relying on a low and precip to literally pop overhead as the energy is passing by. No way any model will have a good handle on exactly when that will happen 48 hours out. Literally a few hours makes a huge difference. Not like there will be a precipitation shield moving through the south we/models can hone in on before it gets here. If I’m west of the Triangle, I’m sweating now. Triangle has the nerves on edge after living rent free yesterday. NE NC and SE VA feeling pretty awesome

Only saving grace is the freezing line is offshore the coast and down to savannah Georgia and If taken verbatim then every corner of wake county has a least 5 inches of frozen on the ground after the storm…

I’d imagine the snow areas would benefit from ratios much better that 10:1 with that kind of cold air. Holy hell that’s a mega storm for everyone on this board

So, how bout that almost 6 inches of sleet. You think that would stick around till March?

We’ve ALL been NAM’d

As I said earlier, if it’s just sleet and in the 20’s that’s a huge win. I haven’t had snow on my driveway since 2018 in December. A winter storm with snow/sleet, temps way below freezing, and no freezing rain is almost unheard of here. So if the pretty snow map doesn’t verify and we get 2-3” of glacier, I will be the happiest person on the board. As for the no precip part… definitely praying we don’t trend further east, but honestly a weak, slider type system is what gives us our snow most of the time. I like the trends today and I love where we’re at

I mean, that’s almost identical. Thanks!

It definitely was drier overall… But it was less amped, less mixing, and a lot of us started with this mornings euro output of 2-3 inches of sleet and are now looking at 5-8 inches of snow. Definitely trends to watch but imo it was playing catch up to some of the other solutions that have been less amped all day.

I mean, we’re talking about consecutive days now of model runs and if you’re in central NC-SE Virginia you have to be feeling pretty good right now. Western areas, I get the concern. Just make sure you’re posting what area when making blanket statements about trends looking bad or models looking dry bc there is a large, snow deprived chunk of this forum that continues to look really really good for a moderate snowstorm at this point