NorthHillsWx

Only issue going to be, drum roll, surface temps. High ratio fluff gets nuked when the surface is at or just above freezing in my experience

Couple things: the coastal has not been our (our = anyone away from coastal plain) storm on any model besides the NAM for a while now. Seeing it drop it is not surprising given the other models. What has been consistent is the snow breaking out from the upper level system interacting with that developing low. Think last Friday, very very similar. This is definitely trending away from a big event but a snowfall looks somewhat likely for most in NC still

Thoughts and prayers for anyone in Boston who just watched that NAM run

If anyone needs to see a board wide meltdown head over to the NYC sub forum right now

Best model until it doesn’t show what we want, then we toss

For what it’s worth, the 3k NAM is a very good look on its last frame. That’s going to end well for a lot of folks if you extrapolate that forward

Very similar solution playing out for NC as last weekend. Will need to milk everything we can get out of that upper level jet passing NW of the main LP bc it’s trending for us to be outside the main precip field. QPF looks very similar to Friday but temps are warmer and much warmer to start. If I was making a call map, from Charlotte to Greensboro-east I’d take what you got on Friday and divide it by 3. I think eastern NC is the only exception but there will be a much more drastic cutoff since this is a much stronger low and will have more influence on these areas. I think a large chunk of the state gets 1” with isolated 2” amounts and a sharp gradient to a 6-8”+ zone wherever that developing comma head sets up and banding is established. Probably another storm where almost everyone sees some snow in NC

Looks like a large amount of guidance is pointing to a light 1-2” event across a lot of central NC with increasing amounts north and east. Not looking like a big snow but I’ll take another accumulating snow 1 week after a warning criteria snow

I wouldn’t say it’s not onboard. It has a very similar looking solution but the devils in the details at this range

I wish I knew the number of 6”+ storms in my lifetime in Raleigh but I can tell you it’s not that many since 1989

Honestly I’d be very happy with a 1-3” event to cap off this pattern. Would get many near climo for the season with February and March to go

They’ve had more weenie runs with this system then we’ve had in 5 years. They’re going to get slammed. This run tops all the rest too

Might go hand in hand honestly

I just did.

Even if this is just a very light event, it could be the 3rd or 4th snow event (depending on location) in the last 2 weeks. That’s not bad for our region

One would think a 995 low sitting just off hatteras would generate more than 0.10-0.25” for piedmont locations but the transfer could shaft some areas outside the coastal plain. Big time improvement though

The RGEM run was setting up nicely for a large chunk on this board and after the last 2 events that carry’s some weight. Would not shock me to see the globals pull the developing comma head back into piedmont areas tonight. It’s more in line with climo and without blocking seems even more possible assuming the phase occurs to our south and not right off Hatteras. This one’s alive folks very much so

I agree- I think the massive runs from a few days ago (we all knew it was too good to be true) are off the table but if the low gets cranking we could see a minor event across the area with more in the snow belt (Elizabeth City). In other words, I’m thinking this has a low risk to be high impact but may not be without risk to be a low-moderate snow event at this juncture. Certainly a lot of options on the table

Can we talk about the NAM?? That’s not far off AT ALL. It’s about to go BOOM too at the end of the run. Long range, I know, but that is close to what we need

I fixed your post

Euro was further west and quicker with the phase. Verbatim was a 1-3” snowstorm for much of NC with much more in NE NC. Euro actually takes the low inside the benchmark further north and over eastern MA. I’m sure it got some of those folks around Boston a tad bit concerned about mixing

RGEM was absolutely locked into the last one

This is why I come to these boards

18z NAM further SW and even a bit sharper with the trough axis at long range. I know it’s the long range NAM but it’s continuing the trend. With the absence of significant blocking I do wonder if we may end up with development too far west and a rainstorm. I know we’re not there yet but these are all significant and honestly expected trends with a low of this strength. Something to watch at least. For now we seem to be in a decent spot to get SOMETHING out of this

I like the college football model for college. The only problem I have with it is it’s gimmicky. It doesn’t force a team to drive. Running plays inside the redzone is a heck of a lot simpler than driving down the field to get to the redzone. I don’t like it for the NFL