mattie g

If this storm had happened 50 years ago, northern Louisiana would be getting pasted. Let THAT sink in.

Can't say I haven't had similar thoughts recently. Honestly though...once the Holidays are done, I need some sort of hope that the weather will be interesting during the remainder of the winter. If I don't have that, then I really do start pining for warmer weather (after the inevitable chilly March/early April).

Haha...yup. Referred to ers-wxman as "douche boy" and "sonny boy."

So much for a dry Ohio Valley/Upper Midwest during a Nino. They're in line for some beneficial rains just like we are!

First time I've seen someone referred to as "douche boy" on here. Damn...the post got nuked?!

FTFY

Buy some opossums and let them loose in your yard.

So...rain on rain?

So many straws are being grasped at in the January 6-7 storm thread right now. I threw in the towel 24-36 hours ago, but now the many of the other miserable sods around here are staring relative failure in the face.

If only there weren't a Low in the Lakes.

Looks promising.

But why take a snapshot of one point in time and make a sweeping generalization about how things could go to hell? Roll that 500 look forward and you have the TPV pinched under that massive block with a piece of energy ejecting out under it from the southwest...and it's cold. There's no reason to think that a strong Nino will result in a SE ridge that would blast us with warm air and kill our snow chances during prime climo.

I mentioned this in the banter thread because I really don't know anything, but I'll throw it out here. If you check the last couple days of runs, you'll that the low pops up to the north of Lake Superior. As that thing has deepened and shifted ever so slightly, our thermals have worsened. Not saying that's the only thing that's going wrong, but it can't be coincidental.

12/6: T 12/11: 1.25" - Calling it that since the closest trained spotter was at 1.4" and I log in 0.25" increments and didn't want to round up. 1/1: T

Lots of talk about the storm and the rain/snow line among the parents at the bus stop the last two days. I've just been telling people to hold off to see where things were come today...and here we are.

I'll say this...it feels like every time we've had a modicum of a threat in the last couple/few years (not counting January 2022), a low pops up somewhere in the Great Lakes region. Our thermals get wrecked and we're done for. Every. Single. Time. I know that atmospheric physics is much more complicated than that one thing, but it's just too noticeable...and it's happening again with this storm. That Low that has been showing up near Lake Superior over the 36 hours or so of model runs, and as that thing has deepened just a little and edged ever closer to the Lakes, our thermals have gone to shit. Most of us were pretty close to the R/S line for many of these runs, but once that thing showed up where it did, we were done for.

After going to Wisp last week, my wife was like "That's it! We need to buy a house out here." Darling...that sounds like a wonderful idea, but

That's a gorgeous place!

Makes sense as you describe it. While I don't have a ton of leeway in marginal situations, you guys on that side of the bay have even less. Last night's runs definitely got me feeling good - it felt like we had turned things around across the board - but today has almost certainly proven that optimism to be misplaced. Just sucks, but I suppose we move on.

I'm certainly not giving up on winter or anything, but I feel like the writing may well be on the wall for MBY for this event.

After the positive vibes from the 0z runs, 6z and 12z have me starting to creep towards the exit door.

Seems a *bit* overdone for such a fast mover, but man...being right on this R/S line is leaving me with few to no fingernails already.

Per the CMC on TT, it f'ing pours IMBY on Saturday evening at probably 34 degrees.