mattie g

Wind is blowing the heavy rain against my daughter’s window as we read together. Misery and joy. I’ll take the joy!

Yeah…can’t sniff at basically hitting climo by the middle of January with three snows in a couple weeks. Great period for these parts, even if today was a bit of a letdown after the buildup. I think I lucked into holding onto the mids for an extra bit because just before the flip it was absolutely pouring snow for about 30-45 minutes. Think I added close to an inch in that last burst.

32 with some sleet and freezing rain mix in Burke, but readying for the washout. Jesus…that radar looks ugly. Didn’t get a chance to measure before the flip at about 5:15, but I’m pretty confident in a final tally of 3”.

I couldn’t care less that the ops are showing a suppressed storm. Actually, I prefer it, and felt exactly the same for today’s thing. Lots of time for things to play out…and no need for a thread.

Temp dropped to 24 with moderate snow in Burke.

I mean…it’s not rocket science, but cold temps help so much to help everything stick from the onset. We’ve got a pixie-dust car topper/mulch topper/road topper in Burke so far.

First pixie flakes in Burke and torching at 25F.

How about lighten up?

Me lighten up?

How about don’t post them? There’s one every other post, so you can’t but help read them, and they all say the same thing.

The town name jokes are dumb. Please stop.

It’s dumb because all it does it cause heartache and meltdowns among a large group of certain posters if it ends up failing. And all that does is muck the place up and get people arguing again. There’s nothing wrong with - and I’d argue it’s much better - discussing a six-day yonder threat window in this thread. If we get within four days and it’s still looking good, then fire up a thread. My opinion and all, of course.

0z Euro has a bit of a transient block, which is the best we can ask for up top right now, so I’m going to remain incredibly jittery unless we can get this thing under four days. For the next few days, I want to see this thing ocsillate between a decent hit and sliding south. This this has a few runs of going too far NW and it’s light out for those of us in the corridor.

Forget it. We already see the back side of this upcoming pattern.

So you’re saying misery loves company? I have to agree.

You need snowcover for that, silly.

Euro at 240 was about to phase and go nuts. I can't see the heights in the Arctic on pivotal, but it looks like there's kind of a Scandinavian Ridge poking a little into the NAO domain, a bit of a 50/50, a +PNA, and the ridge axis out west anchored in Idaho. I'm not going to sniff at that. I agree. I honestly don't want another 1993-type storm. Interesting and all, but give me a wet, phased system that runs into a block and gets tucked in just off of OCMD as the upper-level comes in from behind. I don't need ridiculous dynamics and all that - that just spells trouble for us. Let's be honest - we do those pretty well, if only occasionally. We're (MBY) NEVER going to be on the big end of a triple-phased monster.

+PNA?

Today we found out that H20 is EJ's dad.

I hope you're not surprised when @stormtrackerdeletes your account.

I think everyone finally understood that, no matter the small (or maybe even relatively significant) upper-air changes from run to run in the last 60+ hours, the end result wasn’t going to significantly change for the better for most in this forum. No reason to parse early details when they’re not going to make a lick of difference in the end.

Like many of the rest of you, I’m looking past this weekend to what could be coming up next. That disturbance next Friday-Saturday on the GFS has been around in some form or another, and it’s started a little bit of a jog to the northwest. We see something hanging around on all other guidance, as well (CMC being the most ridiculous solution for now). With the trend over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS continues moving that one to the northwest, with all guidance starting to converge by the time the upcoming joke is out of here.

Gotta admit, I chuckled. I might steal your idea. Gotta face your fears head on and all that.

It Doesn’t Matter

For all intents and purposes, the ops basically haven’t wavered in 2+ days. It’s uncanny, really, and despite talk of slowing down vorts and getting more confluence and getting good new data from dropsondes and shit, there’s no reason to think we’ll see much different play out on Sunday into Monday. You guys out west are going to get smoked. No need to try to downplay it for fear of jinxing it. It’s going to happen…it’s been a while since you guys have cashed in while folks to the east flipped. It’s like order is being restored to the universe. Us fancy city folk will rip fatties for 3-4 hours, ping, then warm up and rain for a bit. It is what it is, and personally as long as no one is posting snips of correlation coefficient radar as the mix line approaches, I’ll be fine. I’m already more than halfway to average for the season, so tacking on a few inches will just serve to get me even closer to that number.