mattie g

I'm annoyed now. 12z is huge. If the 12z GFS doesn't come in with a solution close to what the Euro was showing at 0z, then I fully expect the 12z Euro to move towards the weaker-souther-easter solution.

If the focking GFS would just come into line with the 0z Euro, we could start a thread and be done with he hand-wringing Focking GFS....

Yeah…we’ve seen these things play out before, whether to our benefit or detriment. I’m not confident that it’s going to happen, but I could absolutely see it happening. The only explanation right now would be for this GFS run to have been a burp, but I’m quietly confident that it wasn’t.

That’s a crazy change at H5 starting pretty early on. As soon as that southern stream energy gets ejected, the northern stream slows down and they start to play off one another. There was just no meaningful interaction at 500 in previous runs, so for it to have done this in just one run is pretty substantial. If the Euro at least shows a somewhat similar solution later, and the 6z GFS keeps moving more towards moving the southern shortwave east and the northern shortwave west, we might want to get out the shovel oil…just in case.

We’ve got the Icon trend, as well.

Same with 18z…and we got it.

I don’t want this possible event to ruin the potential of a big boy on Friday/Saturday, but if it lays down 3” followed by cold, I’m not going to turn my nose up at it.

As for this weekend-ish threat period, I’d like to see the GFS at least make a move today towards getting us snows. If we don’t see that today, then it’s getting a little too close to gametime and I’d be a little afraid that this one will slip away.

Got it…and that’s kind of what I figured. Given that I’m sitting at about 75% of climo at this point, I’m fine with being patient until discrete threats for MBY come into reliable range. Good thing is that we don’t really have to wait long. If a threat looks to miss, there should be another one on its heels that we can keep our eyes on.

It doesn’t because I don’t have the weather memory so many of you have. All I remember is that it was cold and we had a never ending series of vorts flying around the PV that gave us shots at snow. I wish I had been keeping notes on our snows back then…

All I looked for in the Icon was any trend to the NW, and we got it. That’s a good start to 12z.

But it’s run from the same initial conditions as the op, and the fact they generally resemble each others’ results (excepting snow totals) on day 5 can’t be ignored.

What about when it reaches normal snowfall?

Plenty surprised that all surfaces are still white here in my corner of Burke; even the street (plowed at 10:00 last night) is still covered. Should be plenty of melt today, but that’s totally fine by me.

It sounds cliche, but there are so many windows within this window, but we don’t even know exactly when those windows will open. Vorts flying around all over the place, cold air, dogs and cats living together…it’s a pretty fun, weeks-long ride, and it’s really just started.

F5 on The Mall?

Plain English (Middle or Modern), please?

Wind is blowing the heavy rain against my daughter’s window as we read together. Misery and joy. I’ll take the joy!

Yeah…can’t sniff at basically hitting climo by the middle of January with three snows in a couple weeks. Great period for these parts, even if today was a bit of a letdown after the buildup. I think I lucked into holding onto the mids for an extra bit because just before the flip it was absolutely pouring snow for about 30-45 minutes. Think I added close to an inch in that last burst.

32 with some sleet and freezing rain mix in Burke, but readying for the washout. Jesus…that radar looks ugly. Didn’t get a chance to measure before the flip at about 5:15, but I’m pretty confident in a final tally of 3”.

I couldn’t care less that the ops are showing a suppressed storm. Actually, I prefer it, and felt exactly the same for today’s thing. Lots of time for things to play out…and no need for a thread.

Temp dropped to 24 with moderate snow in Burke.

I mean…it’s not rocket science, but cold temps help so much to help everything stick from the onset. We’ve got a pixie-dust car topper/mulch topper/road topper in Burke so far.

First pixie flakes in Burke and torching at 25F.

How about lighten up?