Stevo6899

21 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Sure, rain.

As long as it's not a snow noreaster for I95 cities..

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

basically three areas of low pressure are going to combine

As long as it's not a noreaster for I95 cities...

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Quite a stormy pattern taking place down there, might even be able to go ENH tomorrow for Central FL. How often do you get 1040 MB highs in mid December with temps in low 50's here? 

Yea, it seems El Nino is definitly flexing its muscles, as it's been stormy down there this month. The last few winters it seemed like it would rain once a month down there, especially la nina winters. It's too bad when we get favorable la ninas, it seems the tele's wreak havoc and mess up a potentially good/snowy winter. I dont know much about them but id guess they are not affecting el nino or its tendencies so far this nov/dec.

It's interesting that it's gonna be avg or slightly below avg temp wise down in sw Florida. Having lived there the past 4 winters, it's been normal for temps to be in the 80s for weeks in djf. It's just odd to see temps above avg in metro detroit, in mid/upper 40s, while at the same time it's barely cracking 70 down in south florida. 

I wonder if we'll see any snowmaps in our region this winter that look like western maine/into canada the next 48 hours...

I guess I shouldn't be surprised to see some cloud to ground lightning in my backyard before snow in December in a El Nino winter. Storms developed right overhead...

3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

fooled u

Instead of upper midwest, I should've said further east into Wisconsin and u.p. where models for a few days were showing decent snows there, now just rain lol. But yea atleast someone is seeing snow. If it ain't gonna snow, I'll take days like today in the 50s. Sun felt great.

What makes it even worse/funnier is that it doesn't even look like the leading wave is gonna produce any snow for the upper midwest either as even thats turned into a strung out mess. Usually for us in Chicago/detroit, minneapolis and upper midwest gotta get their snow first as they see the colder temps earlier.

Potential secondaries and low pressures riding along the front are always tough to forecast. Gets wrapped up a lil too late for anything significant for most of us.

34 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Euro continues to be slower and much more amplified. Bomb in the lakes by this weekend.

I think the clipper/system out ahead of it is key. The slower that is to move along, the more east the main show will be.

18 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Just my $.02 but -assuming I'm reading that right- 1.7" in two hours or less while accounting for November ground temps sounds like a pretty decent thumping to me. 

Considering we got almost a foot of snow in less than 12 hrs in mid November not too long ago, but I need to respect that nickle and diming gets some excited. I just hope we can get a decent snow in early December. It seems more often than not, December is boring. These last 3 days of foggy cold rain makes me question why anyone would live here this time of year lol.

5 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

This is heavy?

And yes, I agree, it was exactly like what repeated this 11-27 as your area got a direct hit and I got half here (0.9), lol

josh's criteria for heavy is different than ours....

22 hours ago, roardog said:

Maybe with the help of El Nino, we can get some +PNA induced real clippers for a change which we haven't had in 125 years or so(maybe an exaggeration). 

Gfs looking kinda clipperish in the long range...

I guess it makes me feel a little better to see a rain storm fizzle as it heads NE, as it occurs often in the winter. The radar this morning looked Impressive in NE Indiana and by the time it got up to metro detroit, it was just light showers.

A few euro runs in a row of decent snow potential this weekend for Michigan....

Doing what we do best on the east side, light sloppy mix. 

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

From the new England forum, it appears December starts cold before a few weeks flip to milder then colder and stormier towards Christmas. 

Starting a sentence with from the new England forum is like using wikipedia as a source/reference for a research paper. 

Third straight day of full sun, not a cloud in sight, and almost 60 every day too. Every year I try to remember the latest I was able to still golf, I think nov 28 a few years ago. Maybe/hopefully we can break through that this year. I definitely don't take days like these for granted, considering it seems like it's been full clouds for the last few weeks. 

3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Not sure which season you are speaking of there? As for the wild swings, see my other post and I agree. 1991-92 may fall into that camp as well. Iirc, it was a Nino that delivered an impressive "Detroit Special" in mid-January (some say it was a triple-phaser). 10-15" across the region in very dynamic fashion had much of the city at a virtual standstill. I was living in Traverse at the time and we'd had a blah season to that point so I wasn't too happy, lol.  

I'm glad i wasn't alive for the 72 season and witnessed bay city get 2 feet while myself 80 or so miles to the SE got slop lol.

7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

It was known for the St. Patty's Day storm that buried cities like Jackson and Bay City with 20+. A colder version is what SEMI needs. Something between 72-73 & 02-03

Good thing I wasn't around for that. I'm all for wild temp swings as it may be the only setup/way we can get that historic big one...

Larry Cosgrove sees a similarity so far to 2009/2010 djf. (72-73 also but I dunno if anyone knows what kind of winter that was except for josh)

Stackn Phatties along 696.

It will be interesting to see who will see more precip from dec-feb, fort myers or detroit. I have no idea historically who receives more precip.  Having lived in Florida in the winters for awhile now and with it being their dry season, it'll be interesting if el nino follows through and its a wet winter. 2 seasons ago, I think it rained 2 days from christmas through february in fort myers. With that being said, I'd guess detroit sees more precip normally, but it'll be interesting if the tele's will have enough influence on the el nino enso and push that storm track further north so it's not another dull winter up north.

44 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

The pre-20th winter grinch was 11-11-19. Didn't even get a Warning (Thx GRR). 19-20 ended up being a dumpster fire

I looked this storm up early after seeing Josh mention it and it looked like a good storm for alot of areas but I don't recall it. I kept a close eye on snowstorms while I was in florida too. I'll take a Halloween snowstorm for sure. All I remember is rainstorms while I was young trick or treating lol.

2 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Come on man. All signs are pointing to a warm winter.

He can't see your posts anymore. Consider that a sign that you may be trolling too hard as me and josh have been going back and forth for years and he's never put me on ignore... that I know of.

While I do enjoy deep snow cover, and may be superstitious when it comes to getting a snowstorm on top of Snowcover, I'll take the warm swings and the risk of sleet if it means the potential for big snows. On the other side I don't mind arctic air if it leads to overachieving clippers, although when its below avg temp wise, clippers seem nonexistent nowadays with the bigger storms suppressed.