Stevo6899
-
Posts
2,514 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by Stevo6899
-
-
1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:
Yes, it is better. I'm also rooting for slightly weaker, however a stronger storm will not necessarily be a complete redo of this storm. The Arctic hounds are waiting in the wings behind Fri/Sat storm whereas there's no cold air with this storm. Of course all that said I definitely want slightly weaker.
I think it can be misleading regarding the strength of these lows. I am no expert but the gfs just has the storm getting its act together later than the euro. It isn't necessarily weaker when it comes to the precip. A strengthening low down to 980 can still produce the same kind of deformation band as a 970 low. The difference however is the speed and whether the low closes off. Now I don't know if a 970 low is more likely to close off than a 980 low. It looks like to me the gfs is more progressive with the wave and doesn't close it off (neg tilt) like the euro may, thus less snow amounts than it could produce if it closed off and slowed down a bit. I'd imagine lows are more likely to close off and go neg tilt when there's phasing involved like GHD 2011. Today's storm looks like it may be going neg tilt and its only a 985/980 low. I need to educate myself more on the detailed maps and not just look at the precip maps. I do however appreciate when more educated people give their analysis on here.
-
12z rgem looks euroish with a low strengthening alot sooner than the gfs/nam. Extrapolated it would be sexy for chitown, N indiana, into western part of Michigan.
Sort of. It slowly slides east as it hits the block. 12+ hours of mod/heavy snow. I'd imagine ratios would be above 10:1 in the defo band with this one.
-
Automatic F grade for winter when you hear pingers bouncing off your windows. For those receiving snow today, enjoy it
-
1
-
-
GFS pretty consistent on the heavy band in Indiana/Michigan. Don't usually like to be hoping for a SE jog, and rather be on the NW fringes, but detroit only a few counties away from the band. Heartbreaking cutoff.
-
16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:
This is gonna be one of those situations where you don't really have a full/total handle on how it's going to go until we're deep into it, for the metro/NE IL that is.
Tbh this is how it feels for almost every storm. The models are good for highlighting the potential snow amounts, but where the bands setup always comes down to nowcasting.
-
2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:
All the ensemble means are looking great for Michigan. Only 4 more nail biting days to go.
I didn't think this thing would come SE like it did on the euro. Models struggling, and need this current low to roll through before they hone in on some consistency.
-
7 minutes ago, Stebo said:
All 3 of those were still great systems here, no need for greed when we have had nothing so far.
Yea I hear ya. At the end of the day, this is rehashed every winter. Some are okay with mediocrity and thats cool. The fact we've had nothing so far this winter doesnt alter anything for me. I want a big dog but I know it's hard for detroit to get one. We need a strong low to take a favorable track to our SE, and it needs to be strong enough not to allow a transfer to the coast. It's hard to get that based on our location and our history with the lack of big dogs portays this. Detroit needs a hooker dig and not strengthen until its a bit further east than this potential, or a gulf low that rides west of the apps. The potential issue with this storm is what the canadian is showing. The block halts the low, occluded, and transfers to the coast. That's not the recipe for a big dog. With that being said I know I should be grateful for what we get but I'm just a 40 yr old weenie at heart.
-
2
-
-
1 minute ago, Stebo said:
A panhandle hook is one of the classic snowstorm tracks for us. GHD blizzard 78 and 99 all were panhandle hooks.
Yea and while those impacted detroit, areas to the west got a whole alot more snow. Im just at the point where I wanna be in the jackpot zone and I know that's hard to have happen. Panhandle hooks, the significant ones, aren't the best for us. Ghd 2011...
-
57 minutes ago, nwohweather said:
To me it's starting to look like a classic Panhandle Hook, especially with that track. I can't think off the top of my head very many times we've cashed in on these systems, Chicago can though
Yea I dont know how a storm to our sw is a classic track for detroit snowstorms. I will say the block that stebo mentions seems to be flexing when the low gets to Indiana. If it can halt the low like the 12z gfs, it could be interesting.
-
Yea still a bit to go but just going on past experiences. With a strenghtneing low coming out of arkansas, its not unusual for a low to go NNE, especially if the models are handling the strenghtneing right. Hoping for the best but just being realistic that's all. Maybe the models are overdoing the strength. I'm okay with making a few hour drive to experience it on a weekend.
-
History says once a nw trend is alive, ride it. You'd think this midweek storm would suppress the next one a lil bit more....
-
Another bummer track for dtw. Looking like a road trip to cmu to visit cousin at school..
-
2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:
It actually is incredible how far the euro has fallen from its King status years ago.
It was pretty spot on, 5-6 days out with the midweek storm, better than all the other models. But yeah definitly not as good as it once was.
-
5 minutes ago, andyhb said:
12z runs have been pretty stout thus far and the Euro is coming in shallower with the lead wave on Wed/Thurs. Seems to have better wave spacing between the two as well.
Yea I noticed the canadian was stronger with that clipper in between. The weaker that clipper is, the more nw the storm may go?
-
27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:
Other items of interest about Friday/Saturdays storm. Its a different setup than Tuesday in that there's a ton of cold air lurking, unlike tuesday. But more interesting is that regardless of the low track, models seem to want to throw a lot of snow well to the east of the L, channeling blizzard of '99
Yea thats definitly rare to see, but still wanna be nw of the low. It's all gonna come down to where the baroclinic zone and the block/confluence sets up. Everything has to line up for us so we'll see if we can get lucky and get a snowstorm.
-
45 minutes ago, Frog Town said:
unfortunately this is where we were with this Tuesday's storm and look how that turned out for Southern Michigan. Wait till Thursday night.
This midweek storm was going nw of Detroit for almost the whole time, especially on the euro. It definitly schooled the gfs on this one so far. The fact next weekends storm is SE on the euro is a good sign. Still a long ways to go.
-
I think the 12z gfs is gonna look about as sexy as a storm can look for metro Detroit, 985 low intensifying in central Tennessee. The fact its intensifying so much, means its less likely to transfer to the coast, which we see so many times in this scenario/setup that limits a big dog. You got the front end, the main show, all snow. Pretty rare around these parts. 20-30 inch stripe. Perfect track with a little wiggle room for a NW adjustment.
-
1
-
-
You know you've had shit luck with big dogs when we gotta go back to 78 to talk about a historic storm that dropped only 5 inches in detroit. Meanwhile chicago crew only gotta go back 12 years. East coast a few years. Minneapolis 13 years....
-
3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:
10 years ago, today, we had −50° wind chills, 16" of snow on the ground... and it was only the beginning.
I feel we talk about it every winter but that's about as nasty as I've seen it around here. Deep snow, arctic temps. I doubt we'll see that ever again.
-
2
-
-
I guess I'm not around as much, but from what I saw he just liked to show off his love for warmth and palm trees. Nobody else in his life cared so he turned to here. I suppose not everyone has the tolerance to deal with trolls...
-
4
-
-
1 minute ago, Stebo said:
It will keep changing so I am not going to take a bow by any stretch here, it could easily suppress further south or go back north.
Yea suppression is always the worry in El nino. Obviously like you said, until that midweek system rolls through, who knows.
-
2 hours ago, Stebo said:
The only issue I have with this projection is that it doesn't make sense on face value. There is blocking to the north with a strong -NAO and there should be some confluence from the Tuesday/Wednesday storm and this one riding right up on its heels. I would expect this to come south and east some over time and the GEFS members are actually much more subdued, even a few that have completely nothing. I just don't buy a storm running right into a block like that and almost moving due north as well. Also too the system this weekend and the one early next week have come south some or in the case of the early next week storm isn't nearly as wrapped up and takes a more NEward trek compared to some of the early model projections. I do still think this will be a significant threat but I would expect a bit flatter of a track. For some people like Missouri and central Illinois the output probably will remain significant either way.
Gfs looking like you may be onto something...
-
It's a message board, not a workplace. Just ignore people that try to troll sometimes. Its not that hard. Not sure why we gotta threaten people on here.
-
I guess we got some stuff to track for awhile. As always all models showing drastically different things. Glad it's getting active...
-
2
-
1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
I am not your sweet summer child and I dunno what 10 hours you are referring to lol. While detroit always seems to get in on pingers, I don't recall having 10 hours of it. I remember ghd 11 was a few hours.