Stevo6899

Kind of cool to see parts of Western Iowa seeing thunderstorms right now and then are going to get over 10 inches of snow.

Pretty wild day so far. Woken up by boomers at 7am. Saw a storm pop up right overhead and gust easily to 50mph a little bit ago. Warmth feels good. Some warned storms coming into the state currently. Lots of low clouds racing by. Gotta luv spring storm systems, unfortunately it comes with wedges further south. You hate to see them occur at night.

20 hours ago, roardog said:

These days, we all have access to the latest model forecasts. We can see trends or changes before the official forecast changes. I remember back in the day you knew a decent storm was possible in the coming days from either the met on your local news or from watching The Weather Channel. Then when the Winter Storm Watch was issued it was exciting because that was the next step toward seeing a big storm. Then you had to wait about 12 hours for the next update. How times have changed. lol

When you saw big dawg paul kocin on the screen, you knew a snowstorm was a brewin.

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You obviously missed the entire point of my post. 

And you may want to look up the definition of "equal". Detroits winter has been nothing to write home about, but it's been far better than Chicagos. We've literally had double the amount of snowfall and snowcover they have. The fact that Chicago is looking at top 5 snow futility in a cold winter is very surprising. 

Again having a few more days where we get an inch or two in 6 hours doesn't necessarily mean our winter was better than theirs. Turd winter for both.

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Next year or whenever Chicago gets the better end of a snowstorm than Detroit, I dont want to hear from my fellow Detroit peeps how its not fair lol. (of course, ill be rooting for my own backyard, im just talking if it happens).

The peak snow depth this winter at Chicago was 3", which ties several other winters (2022-23, 2019-20, 1970-71, 1941-42, & 1924-25). The only winters with a lower peak depth were 1936-37 & 1921-22 when the peak depth was just 2".

The maximum calendar day snowfall this winter at Chicago was 2.9". The only seasons with a lower high snowfall were 1921-22 (1.3"), 1920-21 (1.8"), 1901-02 (2.6"), & 1936-37 (2.7"). Two other years (1965-66 & 1967-68) tied the 2.9".

Both cities had equally shitty winters. Having more snow depth at times this winter is nothing to brag about lol. How about a bowling ball event where both cities get big snows

Looks like a chance to be almost 60 everyday next week with plenty of sun. 

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

MI has had many advisories this year lol, and some warnings too. The hole of no advisories is due to the L pressure tracking through the mitten, wrapping the advisory+ level wind around us.

I'm well aware why we had no headlines. One of the strongest storms this winter and zzzz here.

Got to love the donut hole of no advisories in Michigan. Prob the safest/most boring place to live weather/natural disaster wise.

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

The UP is having a huge snow year and Weatherbo has been completely silent.  Anyone have any idea what happened to him?

Prob busy taking care of more important things like making sure his roof doesn't collapse from the snow.

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Don’t worry. It’ll be warm in Florida. lol

Unfortunately my time down here comes to end on march 1st every year. Looks like a Rollercoaster of temps next week up north.

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know they dont mean anything by it, but every year without fail (regardless of what kind of winter we have), the cool thing to do on this board is to hope for "Morch" and those of us who root on spring snowstorms are crazy. It makes legit zero sense to me why anyone would root on an agricultural disaster. Fortunately, nothing close to 2012 has happened since.

I love snow but once march comes along, I'm ready for warmth, selfishly record warmth, especially if it's been a shit winter. Regardless they will come up with some excuse as to why prices of fruit or anything else is so high so let's torch.

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

It actually has some similarities to the event of a few weeks ago (The Detroit fader).

Lol what a shitturd that storm turned into. Would be nice to end this shit winter with an 8+ storm.

Gfs doing weird things with the threat for the 6th.

All models seem to be developing a secondary but obviously those are very fluid and going to take a while before the models can pin it down.

Need that super clipper to Sag a little bit more south..

Maybe we'll hit the jackpot and a super clipper drops down and delivers for us..

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

This never looked like something special for illinois for any runs, shame it didnt have a chance to crash down 

Fixed**. Did the storm already happen? I don't get all the bust talk. The waa/front end was never gonna be anything great and main show to still come. Definitly some bust potential later though. I sense some enjoyment on your part on the potential of a bust over here. Perhaps I'm wrong but I never understood why certain  illinois/chicago peeps always rooting against others snow chances.

Dtx in the office playing their saturday poker game, talking about how they are gonna wait until it starts snowing later today to issue headlines for tonight. I get the hesitation, they're probably on the fence on issuing a warning.

1 minute ago, Lightning said:

I don't know where you are getting this from??  Winter is one of the themes of Michigan!!

Yea I dont know why he keeps repeating that. I've never said nor have I seen any of us say it doesn't snow here. I've reiterated the big snows don't happen here.

While I'm grateful that I'm going to see a decent snow, it's just shows you how volatile/fluid these systems are to predict Last night's GFS had over a foot and today's run has half that. So close to a biggie as it gets its act together well east of here. Another big snow for our friends nw of Toronto in ontario.

45 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Agreed. 

Regarding the petering systems:  It took me several year but I have learned the well developed systems moving in favor area to the west and north of here even with the models always just keeping it strong.  It is a lot more fun being on the maturing/strengthening side but definitely more stressful/risky  

Yes, bands almost always end up further nw when strenghtneing systems move our way. It's been pouring here the last hour, easily inch plus band overhead. Nice little appetizer.

20 minutes ago, Lightning said:

So for this winter the 10:1 have been fairly good for my area (keep in mind that is not the actual ratio but it works out).  But I only use them and stopped looking at the others as they are more like porn!!

I was not expecting 18"as that would be foolish.  My hope was 8-12" (i.e. 10") total based on all the trends and potential being shown yesterday.  While it could still happen I think it best to temper my expectations to 4-6" and hope for comeback as the 12Z NAM showed 

Nam looks pretty sexy for later, could be surprised and see some good totals later once the low gets cranking. There's always surprises when a low is maturing and strenghtening nearby. It's a nice change as it seems often lately systems are petering out when they approach us.

Still incredible to see the difference in strength and track of nam vs rgem.

35 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Last night was not as surprising to me.  It is like summer with the nocturnal storms.  When they are robust in IL and WI, when they arrive over here they are typically a dud.  Things were to redevelop significantly this morning into the after noon with 2-4" expected throughout the day but now the HRRR is has strongly gone way from that.  

Went to bed with most models outputting 10-18" for the whole event.  Wake up today with several models now showing 3-5" for the event.    Let just say I am nervous to see the 12Z run.  

The models were never really bullish on much with the front end thump. it's always been the better snows we're going to come later today with the main event.

Also it's probably a good idea to get in the habit of not even looking at the snow Maps because even the 10 to 1 Maps you got to shave off three four inches from what they're showing usually.

Also just landed (bachelor party tonight but was gonna come home anyways) and man my body is in shock once I stepped outside and took in the snowy scene. The cold never usually bothers me but the fact that I've been in 85° weather the last month, it feels like -5 lol. Excited for my first snowstorm in like 5 years.

Don't think I've ever seen the whole state of Michigan under an advisory except for four counties in the UP, counties that seem to always be under an advisory for lake effect. 

4 minutes ago, roardog said:

I think I'm even more interested in this than usual because I already have over a foot of snow on the ground. A big hit would make for an epic snowpack.

yeah my mom back home says there's about 6" on the ground. It's been a minute since we've had a big snow (6+) but on top of some decent snow cover, been awhile.

45 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

It’s been 14 years since a blizzard warning in SEMI if anyone is wondering and that was for the flop storm famously known as ….ghd1 

 

no. They didn’t need to issue one then but they did and that was the last time 

Why did you have to go there? Everyone remembers. To be honest they really did need to issue one but unfortunately it took that jog Northwest. Dtx definitly felt the pressure from surrounding offices to issue one.

With the storm system fully sampled and currently in the Rockies, perhaps the models are getting a better ingestion of data and we're starting to see some consistency with 18z. Although as I'm typing this I don't think there's any new data involved in the 18z suite