Stevo6899

With the high ratios, slower movement, and potential strengthening as it moves NE, has overachiever written all over it. Would be fitting our biggest snow event of the winter would materialize less than 48 hrs before the event.

Obviously you can't really take the hhr at hour 50 very seriously but if you extrapolate the 6z run, you would think the totals west in illinois/ind would translate eastward into michigan. Sub 999 low intensifying. Its pretty wild how much the models are struggling with this setup. Perhaps alot of the energy is originating in the nw, in Canada. Usually models struggle with canadian energy. The early next week threat looked like the bigger potential, now this one is trying to take its place, pretty much 48 hrs out.

I look forward to your videos. I will live vicariously through the next 4-5 days.

Wish i was in Michigan for this. Looks like macomb is getting heavy bands redeveloping overhead. Might be the jackpot area.

I think if the late weekend storm can slide off the East Coast and not intensify too much like the ggem portrays, this leaves the baroclinic zone further north, and allow some ridging for some amplification of this wave of energy.

Either way i think he still has better potential in berkley.

Afraid of warmer air and tongue sneaking in here on the east side. Thundersnow and better potential for overachieving out your way in oakland county.

Me and aaron go way back lol. I aint lyin tho. Looks like euro gonna turn it into a progressive turd. Cant get a low to amplify at the right time around these parts (MI)

He's more desperate for snow than a prost!tute who just got outta jail.

Gettin real old seeing iowa in almost every bullseye.

5% chance of even half those totals verifying in SEMI.

U know its a sh*t winter when Josh is even remotely close to bitchin about it. Slowly wearin you down. If this next wave performs anything like the gfs is showing that will give northern Wisconsin there big snow leaving pretty much metro Detroit as only area this far north in the region without a respectable snowstorm. Maybe Toronto but havent really paid much attention to canada as most dont lol. As frustrating as its been, its even worse that the northeast might get its 3rd foot plus storm in a winter where it looked promising the midwest would have a possible historic winter and east coast not much. Just goes to show winter outlooks are useless.

Showing off his graph interpeting skillz.

Going off on the 12z euro, the weaker this next wave is (feb 3,4), the better chance the next threat can come NW with the southeast ridge. Looks to be some phasing going on with northern stream also which enhances the threat. Ill leave the potential phasing with the event to the red tags to elaborate.

I dont think it matters who starts a thread. I honestly had no issue with brian d starting a thread to mix it up since SE MI needed something to shake things up but so much for that idea. Just one of those winters. And lol @ josh who said earlier today winters only half over. Its 75% over. Cant count on snow in march, maybe the first week.

I only remember the early november storm last winter as the only 6+ event. Perhaps downriver got the brunt of a few others us northerners got grazed by?

Repeat of every event this winter. Grinder.

Canadian not playing ball.

I think once this current storm gets east of the coast in the next 3 days, models will hopefully hone in on this next one. Until then cant get sucked in. Looks promising for snow starved areas.

To be fair, climate doesnt support snow and snowcover as much the further south you go towards cincinatti. But yea people need to put things in perspective before they complain about the lack of snow. I live 40 miles north of detroit and I don't think ive had more than 3 inches in a 24 hr period this winter, and it happened maybe once last winter in the early november snowstorm. Kinda rare this far north. The lack of big snows the past 3 winters is frustrating but it happens and we had a good run prior. Ive learned to be more happy for those that cash in on snow. Good karma.

Can you please share the link to this website. Ive seen these kinda days since warnings maps used for severe weather. Something like 2000 days since a tornado watch in detroit i think lol. Thanks.

If you were just looking at the composite reflectivity on the 18z nam (twisterdata) for the first time for this storm, you'd get so pumped to see the huge blob of heavy precip exploding, expanding, making a B-line (i think that was a accuweather forum posters name) straight NE towards SEMI. Then it hits the wall, what a bummer. Not something you see very often and its happened twice the past week.

Those of us in places that havent seen a 4+ event all winter are thinking nobody in iowa should be upset.

This ain't ours dewd, let er go lol. Gotta move that block east before we get a respectable storm.

Definitely a tough zone to be in for good snowstorms (detroit, 401 to toronto). No block, we get a GHD type that goes NW. Block, the precip dissipates as it enters the region. Getting the block to setup in the right place is like russian roulette. We need an old fashioned gulf low, riding into arctic air. Good to see some areas that haven't seen much cashing in with this one.