Stevo6899

Nornally id say you gotta cut these kuchera totals in half atleast but its been awhile since SEMI has had this kinda arctic air in place with a decent storm and moisture coming in from the south, so who knows.

I think gfs parallel has had over 70 inches in my backyard in the last month and we've probably got maybe 10 so I wouldn't trust it. Looks like another Detroit duster incoming. Its wild how every decent event has eluded the indy/toledo/dtw corridor.

Gfs/ggem pretty close in agreement on track for storm for next weekend.

I saw this tower blossom on my bike ride tonight. Thought I'd snap a pic and upload it since its prob been 5 months since y'all seen one.

Pv and arctic air need to retreat a bit. Rather take my chances with precip issues. More often than not, big dogs occur with warmer temps, more moisture. Gotta smell the rain to get the big snows most of the time. This pattern isn't allowing any spacing or room for amplification. Not sure if that's more bad luck with pieces ejecting/lack of a strong shortwave or the colder air squashing the storms more SE.

Im assuming ratios would be atleast 20:1, so detroit could be looking at their first 6+ event, and possibly wsw and warning. Hopefully the euro is right.

It's funny how just a couple years can change your mindset and thinking. 2-3 years ago, those on the northwest fringe of storms thought they were sitting pretty In case of last minute NW trend/stronger low pressure systems, which we saw often. The past couple years its been the opposite for the most part. I never thought I would miss the Northwest trend days. Hoping we can get back to that the next few weeks. Ill take potential for sleet and rain over dry, cold and miss the the SE.

As often in this setup, the low wants to transfer its energy to a coastal vs remaining dominant and strengthening as it moves NE. This is why its so hard to get a big dog in the eastern great lakes/subforum.

I haven't been home since nov 1st, but via cam near my front door, I can confirm I see blades of grass peaking through the snow. The lack of big dog potential in my neck of the woods this winter is a bummer. Old crusty snowcover doesnt do anything for me but y'all enjoy your yellow/black dirty snowcover.

We gotta get a shortwave with some strength to come along before this cold air retreats and were back to dealing with precip issues. Early indications the euro is still gonna have a respectable storm based on the ridging and location of high pressure. Maybe a lil further east.

Its gonna have to be very buried to get me to leave 85 and sunny down here in estero florida. If only my family and friends knew id fly home for a snowstorm lol.

It seems like for the past 2 weeks the gfs has had a pretty big storm at about 160 hours and then it fades and 2 days later another storm at 160 hours lol. Definitly desperate for a decent snowstorm to even be looking past 100 hours on any model.

The SE ridge needs to wake up and man up. Id rather a miss nw than cold and suppression.

The once promising train of baroclinic snows has moved south and trek into the east coast. Weak waves in midwest slowly blossom into 4-8 events for the east coast. Damn ocean moisture source. Hopefully we can run into a big storm a week or so from now as maybe the pattern changes.

Yea it would've been cool to be home for that. Still down in Florida until march. I have a bunch of delta miles to use and planned to use them this winter if a 8+ storm looked likely. I assumed back in November I would fly home atleast once this winter but there's been no opportunities.

Were waiting for the "when you're hot, you're hot" comment. Dont mind me, just a jealous hater currently.

Other models had a respectable storm also. Not really a disappointment, just the usual this winter. It happens. Thanks for the obvious reminder though.

Disappointing this turned into a weak turd. Looked promising for a few runs a couple days ago on the euro. It seems every event that shows promise in SEMI this winter turns to poo. All were asking for is one solid event in a 4 month span nov-feb.

Plenty of energy right on its heels too. Atleast it looks somewhat active during this cold stretch

Pretty much non existent on the ukmet also. Rap and hhr prob off their rocker.

With the high ratios, slower movement, and potential strengthening as it moves NE, has overachiever written all over it. Would be fitting our biggest snow event of the winter would materialize less than 48 hrs before the event.

Obviously you can't really take the hhr at hour 50 very seriously but if you extrapolate the 6z run, you would think the totals west in illinois/ind would translate eastward into michigan. Sub 999 low intensifying. Its pretty wild how much the models are struggling with this setup. Perhaps alot of the energy is originating in the nw, in Canada. Usually models struggle with canadian energy. The early next week threat looked like the bigger potential, now this one is trying to take its place, pretty much 48 hrs out.

I look forward to your videos. I will live vicariously through the next 4-5 days.

Wish i was in Michigan for this. Looks like macomb is getting heavy bands redeveloping overhead. Might be the jackpot area.

I think if the late weekend storm can slide off the East Coast and not intensify too much like the ggem portrays, this leaves the baroclinic zone further north, and allow some ridging for some amplification of this wave of energy.