Do weenie cards expire on March 21? Mine certainly doesn't. I'll take AFD's like this one out of MPX any time of the year.
However, one thing this
system has in abundance is strong forcing. There are contributions
from isentropic ascent, upper level divergence, differential PVA,
and mid-level frontogenesis. All of these show strong signals, and
are very well correlated both spatially and temporally. Net
adiabatic isentropic Omega lines up quite well with model omega,
and with mixing ratios of 3-4+ g/kg there is more sufficient
moisture for at least 8" of accumulation. Add to this the fact
that strong 700 mb frontogenesis is progged, and couples well with
upper level divergence (initially in the left exit region of the
upper jet streak to our north, but eventually during 12-18Z it is
a coupled feature as the jet streak to our southwest gets into the
picture). Negative EPV is indicated above the sloped region of
frontogenesis, owing to convective instabilty per negative theta-e
lapse rates in the layer. This simply adds to the potential for
intense banded precipitation for a 6 hour or so window of time.
I'd say send this thing my way but if the trend on the high-res models continues this is going to become a Chicago special. I don't quite buy that since the upper level signature of the s/w over the PacNW looks pretty potent in water vapor imagery which to me argues against further southward shifts.