ORH_wxman

Definitely...the lower elevation probably makes it a bear for downsloping on a NNE wind...you get the already larger scale shallow downslope wind from the ORH hills to the NNE and then a more severe local effect being in a relative low spot compared to east and northeast in the same town.

You might have been getting worse downsloping in Somers than BDL. It seems just eyeballing that Somers would still be downsloping on a NNE wind as the storm progressed and winds turned...more than BDL would be. Perhaps that difference was enough to overcome the slight elevation advantage....esp with the winds being stronger and marginal temps. It was a fascinating storm for mesoscale terrain effects.

That was the first storm that educated me on the CT Valley snow hole. I was young and ignorant back then, so I used to always think the further west you went, the more snow you got. Then we were out 2 days after the storm at the grocery store and this lady from Springfield made a comment on how they only got an inch or two of slush and I didn't believe her, but she insisted it was amazing driving from there to ORH and going from 1-2" to over 30".

Still the best storm I have ever experienced. Had about 35" in Holden. The fact that like half of it was wet snow and tons of wind really made it unique and quite destructive. It really did a number on the coast too not much more than a year after the 1991 perfect storm.

Nevermind, found the link.... I figured it is easier to watch the Bz than stare outside or take long exposure pics. edit: thanks for the response anyway

Eek, Do you have the link for that image that monitors the Bz/Bt index numbers? I used it last time, but can't find it now.

Yeah a lot of that is coincidental in this case...but the valley obviously doesn't get any help from terrain.

Euro still stalls...it keeps snows in E MA all day tomorrow.

Upton will have to cut total again I think...those are still probably too high.

Euro caves east...still much more impressive with the precip extent than the RGEM/GFS, but it def caved east.

Yeah the radar leads me to believe that this is tucking a bit more than the RGEM...but we'll find out soon enough. The precip the RGEM was spitting out through 06z and 09z just doesn't look far enough west with the good stuff based on the radar...just like the Euro looked wrong the other direction. It's going to be a fun system to track either way. At least for most of the people in this forum, the differences are more trivial than anything else. Maybe its 18" instead of 25"...still a massive storm. For those on the edges, it's a Heart Attack Special.

The stall aspect is a tough forecast. New 03z RAP stalls it now more like the NAM vs the more progressive solutions. I'm not quite sure what to make of the differing model solutions on the stall aspect for tomorrow afternoon. My gut says you are staying in good snow most of the tomorrow and into the evening.

I think the error affects NYC too in the end. They will end up getting what N NJ was going to get. LI still looks good to me for getting big totals (>16")...I still think NYC will get a good storm...just not those 18"+ amounts.

I don't think it makes a ton of difference in E MA to be honest...it might reduce the chance of mixing with rain on the outer Cape.

Euro had steady snow well back into all of NJ by now...all the way to PHL. It's going to be too far west...there is zero doubt in my mind. The question is by how much.

The radar is pretty impressive..GFS is def too far east to me. Prob even the RGEM. But I also think the Euro is too far west.

RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side. But we got a long ways to go.

Lol, the NAM shifted 100 miles in 1 run on a 12 hour forecast (vs 6 hours at 00z)

Not much at all...it's been a thin band nearly stationary...though it look like it is slowly sinking south.

I think the RGEM is too far east also...but I think the Euro might be too far west by a little...I am still envisioning some sort of compromise.

Man, the RGEM might have actually ticked east again...hard to see, but it definitely didn't go west from 12z.

Euro is def a bit east of the 18z nam. I think the nam is probably too far west. It is quite a bit further west than even the rap only 12 hours out. It doesn't make a huge difference for most of us in here but the western fringes it might.

Yeah it's not normal to see this on a 24 hour forecast...esp with good models like the RGEM. I can understand the GFS being junk in these large storms because it usually is, but seeing other guidance further east is a head scratcher. Euro did tick east just a shade though this run...so we'll see how we look over the next 12 hours.

Its probably about 2 feet...but there's really no point to over-analyzing the run verbatim. We don't know where the best mesoscale bands will set up. We're either going to get a ton of snow or an obscene amount of snow.

Just under 2" of qpf this run...I think ORH is in a good spot. Might even be 2" on the dot.