ORH_wxman

Euro caves east...still much more impressive with the precip extent than the RGEM/GFS, but it def caved east.

Yeah the radar leads me to believe that this is tucking a bit more than the RGEM...but we'll find out soon enough. The precip the RGEM was spitting out through 06z and 09z just doesn't look far enough west with the good stuff based on the radar...just like the Euro looked wrong the other direction. It's going to be a fun system to track either way. At least for most of the people in this forum, the differences are more trivial than anything else. Maybe its 18" instead of 25"...still a massive storm. For those on the edges, it's a Heart Attack Special.

The stall aspect is a tough forecast. New 03z RAP stalls it now more like the NAM vs the more progressive solutions. I'm not quite sure what to make of the differing model solutions on the stall aspect for tomorrow afternoon. My gut says you are staying in good snow most of the tomorrow and into the evening.

I think the error affects NYC too in the end. They will end up getting what N NJ was going to get. LI still looks good to me for getting big totals (>16")...I still think NYC will get a good storm...just not those 18"+ amounts.

I don't think it makes a ton of difference in E MA to be honest...it might reduce the chance of mixing with rain on the outer Cape.

Euro had steady snow well back into all of NJ by now...all the way to PHL. It's going to be too far west...there is zero doubt in my mind. The question is by how much.

The radar is pretty impressive..GFS is def too far east to me. Prob even the RGEM. But I also think the Euro is too far west.

RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side. But we got a long ways to go.

Lol, the NAM shifted 100 miles in 1 run on a 12 hour forecast (vs 6 hours at 00z)

Not much at all...it's been a thin band nearly stationary...though it look like it is slowly sinking south.

I think the RGEM is too far east also...but I think the Euro might be too far west by a little...I am still envisioning some sort of compromise.

Man, the RGEM might have actually ticked east again...hard to see, but it definitely didn't go west from 12z.

Euro is def a bit east of the 18z nam. I think the nam is probably too far west. It is quite a bit further west than even the rap only 12 hours out. It doesn't make a huge difference for most of us in here but the western fringes it might.

Yeah it's not normal to see this on a 24 hour forecast...esp with good models like the RGEM. I can understand the GFS being junk in these large storms because it usually is, but seeing other guidance further east is a head scratcher. Euro did tick east just a shade though this run...so we'll see how we look over the next 12 hours.

Its probably about 2 feet...but there's really no point to over-analyzing the run verbatim. We don't know where the best mesoscale bands will set up. We're either going to get a ton of snow or an obscene amount of snow.

Just under 2" of qpf this run...I think ORH is in a good spot. Might even be 2" on the dot.

Yes they do.

Jack is SE MA with 3"+ of qpf on the Euro....but most of E MA is over 2" with another 2"+ area from CT down into the eastern half of LI.

Euro is def northeast of the 00z run...it still backs the deform pretty far west though...but there's no doubt the capture is a bit northeast....which is actually better for people in NNE too.

Wow, 6h QPF over E MA is over 1" between 18-24 hours.

Euro looks a bit east through 24h.

As good a spot as any without going another hour or more to SE MA Plymouth county.

Me too. I think they will be the jackpot too. My gut says those totals will be higher than the deform jack. Mostly because aside from the obscene firehose they get and some OES assistance, the snow there may go pretty strong until late Tuesday night.

RPM did this to an extent right before the Feb 2013 blizzard too...it was putting like Foxboro down to Taunton in the deformation snows and spitting out like 40"+....when it reality that banding ended up out west in CT and central MA.

I do not envy the forecast in that area...pretty tough.