ORH_wxman

My guess is a little further west between 128 and 495. Though I’ll admit I have pretty low certainty on this one. This is a pretty cold airmass sitting near ground level ahead of this storm.

Yeah that sounds right. Early on it may be more than that. Always kind of tough in these but sometimes that molasses arctic air will hold pretty tough and I could see something like 18-20F on the left side of it early on.

It’s there on the EPS. Obviously in muted fashion at 7 days out but there nonetheless.

Based on what? One storm on dec 17th, lol? We haven’t had any other biggies...Dec 2019 he was actually one of the BETTER totals in SNE.

You’re gonna have a lot of failures in the chase aiming for the jackpot all time. You’ll feel like Wily Mo Pena a lot...tons of Ks but then you get the high of him hitting one 490 feet when you finally hit the jack.

Maybe on Friday. Euro actually comes close to keeping that frozen here (it does for NNE)...might actually give an inch or two before it flips to RA- and then FROPA.

Our Davis Strait friend is back and saves our bacon on that run. That thing prob rips through SYR otherwise

It definitely could do that. Model guidance has the firehose the strongest down in the southern half of SNE and it slowly weakens as it moves north. The way you could get lucky though is the CF. This is gonna have a tight CF I think and you might spend a decent amount of time barely on the cold side of it which enhances the snowfall. So that’s what I’d be rooting for there (obviously in addition to hoping the firehose doesn’t weaken much up there).

Just go 2-14” for Weymouth and leave it to next shift. Yep, firehose out of the east is usually very good over interior E and C MA. Don’t think we have any real temp issues this far west..maybe closer to 128/95 they do, though my gut says they are ok there as well. We might change over to a few pellets or even some DZ/FZDZ in the dryslot but that is immaterial to the snowfall forecast. Might cost us an inch or so. And as we thought...you are going to get 30 to 1 fluff up there with ML deformation (even if it’s semi-weak) with upslope assist.

Euro trying to set up a larger d7-8 threat here behind the SWFE/failed cutter.

I feel like every model run here is the same...they all have that 495 to ORH belt in the 12-18” range regardless of what is going on east or west of here. If the entire thing ticks a little more east then maybe s could go higher as it would likely increase our residence time in the WCB/firehose combo, but really only a difference of a couple hours or so.

GFS looks better than 06z for many. Colder in east spots too.

Yeah I wouldn’t worry about exact qpf nuances. The theme was the rgem tickled northeast again and that is going to help most areas in here.

I don’t think it’s that sneaky. Esp southern Catskills. They are in a prime spot.

Prob anyone inside 495 though the difference is most pronounced inside of 128. Don’t think I buy it though because it doesn’t match other guidance the way I’m seeing things trend.

RGEM tickled east but it actually won’t make the eastern peeps happy because it’s weird in that t delays the heavy precip so BL warms there. It’s kind of tilted with the precip shield.

Yeah still light snow on Wednesday morning.

There is gonna be a pretty crazy coastal front in the early part of the storm. We’ll have to watch that. It shows up on the NAM and HRRR really well...they likely diffuse it way too quickly. But its like 32-33F on one side, and 20-23F on the other. Thst could add to enhancement on the left side of that.

NAM is faster than 06z by a few hours with the onset.

Yeah normally you’d get a huge deform band from that track...only issue is that the low is pretty occluded by the time it gets there. It does try and get rejuvenated a bit though so there might be a reintensification of the banding. But even if there isn’t, you’ll prob get like 30 to 1 ratios there from a rotting 15-20 dbz ML band, lol. I fully expect you to be posting radar shots and saying “can’t believe how hard it is nuking under this 15-20 dbz stuff!!! It’s stacking up like arctic fluff lake effect!”

The purely synoptic stuff doesn’t even matter for you...even if you get zero on the WCB (which won’t happen, you’ll get several minimum), you get upslope farts for like 48 hours after that...just wringing out the leftover synoptic moisture thrown around the backside.

Yes agreed. My gut is that it is closer to water than 495 belt. Like I could see that 128 stretch from Newton down to Canton and then south to Easton/Mansfield being a trouble spot for that. Even your ‘hood might be a really bad spot for power grid issues. Like even if you get “only” 8 inches of snow, it could be 7 to 1 mashed potatoes or something.

We better not get another Mar 7-8, 2018. I had like 12-13” of absolute spackle and lost power for 3 days. My gut tells me this may end up closer to like a 29-30F snow here for a lot of it. Maybe the last few hours of the firehose go to 32-33 but hoping by then we have dropped enough dry snow that a few inches of paste at the end won’t be destructive.

That was an impressive performance by Kevin last night. I thought ice1972 had hijacked his computer.

RGEM is now mostly snow for you as well...joining the NAM.