ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Not on this run I don't think...still looks a bit tucky for my liking....but we're still trending with miles to go.
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Yes. I don't trust model guidance to handle this blocking well. We did mention that many times going back. I know you did. It's probably going to change again.
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I'll prob there early grabbing lunch....we're taking the kids out Saturday morning to Hudson/Marlborough area but then I'll head over after that which puts me there prob around 1230.
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Advecting -15C 850s into BOS by Tuesday night
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It might...but sometimes it will focus into a fairly narrow band....hence the NORLUN idea. But we won't know much about that potential until the event is really close. It could still trend more like the GFS and be more of a legit coastal. But my money is on the light snow with maybe a little bit of hangback in spots.
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That blocking is crazy looking. We'd be having flocks of Amazon Parrots ripping into our backyards late next week if it weren't for that.
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This is the type of setup you have to watch for an IVT/Norlun type band that hangs back after the main band of SN- moves through....you can see the isobars inverting back into SNE while at the same time you have very low H5 heights moving overhead to provide the instability.
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Gotta watch for some embedded bands too...the profile is kind of unstable under the shortwave. Very steep lapse rates above 800-850.
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Yeah if we're rooting for an all time exotic frigid slow-moving blizzard.....it's probably the pattern we want. But even aside from that, the slower flow should help amplify more shortwaves instead of fighting meat grinder fast-flow.
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Yeah those are probably the last two winters I saw something like that. Basically taking the flow straight from Siberia into the CONUS.....a true "Siberian Express" pattern.
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The magnitude of that AK/EPO ridge is something I haven't seen a long time for an ensemble mean that far out....it's showing up on all the ensemble guidance too. Not just one suite. It's builidng all the way into the East Siberian Sea.
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Hopefully you can track some OES/IVT action too
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You might get more from Monday than 12/16....lol.
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I mean....it's a D7-8 threat. Don't put he cart before the horse on expectations.
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What in the hell is this from the Ukie....the fishermen on George's Bank are gonna disappear into a vortex
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Lol....maybe wait until the pattern breaks down at least.....prob gonna be several more chances after 12/16.
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Decent front ender for 12/16 over interior SNE (prob N&W of 495) on GFS. Coast is torching with onshore flow in that setup. But obviously that could change as we get closer. That high to the north is funneling a ton of dry polar air to help prolong the frozen over interior.
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Super amped solutions with widespread 12-18" of snow are not coming back. But the way to get sneaky warning snowfall will prob be from a stripe under good fronto....like the GFS had. Pretty cool that you can actually see what the PV lobe was doing on those huge solutions....it was retrograding further west so that the shortwave had room to amplify underneath it rather than staying to the northeast and acting as an inhibitor to amplification.
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We need the "Day After Tomorrow" map that dendrite posted a few days ago.
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What the hell is going on for 12/16? GGEM and GFS both have the 50/50 low getting pushed south into Maine and the GFS then pushes it into the waters east of NE, lol. Some crazy looks ahead of that system.
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Significantly north of 00z though
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Nice stripe of warning snows in NE CT into N RI and maybe tickling interior SE MA?
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GFS is def coming in a bit more zonked.
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ICON and RGEM looks pretty good for widespread light snow over much of SNE for 12/11-12. We'll see what the globals do. The 06z EPS still has some pretty big members in there for 12/12. I don't think they are likely, but can't rule out a little surprise yet.
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Take under on temps....even NAM has it stuck in the upper 20s all day Sunday away from immediate coast. That's quite chilly from the northeast.
