ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah frequently it is, but sometimes it's real. The convective chasing on this storm has been pretty minimal so far...but it definitely seemed like that run did it a little. I would've expected more QPF to be thrown into central/western SNE based on these two frames:
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Donuts and coffee just strewn all around the cruiser.
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It's def east through 66 hours. But it's going to capture this at some point so we'll see how far east in the end.
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if I had to take an educated guess, it prob ends up slightly east of 06z....there's two competing forces....southern stream is dragging worse but the northern stream looks healthier and more meridional.
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Def hanging back the southern stream more....but northern stream looks better.
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Yeah I think they could still pull a 20 burger band out there....the question is how far does this swing to the right before being pulled back NNW by the ULL capturing it....some of the runs that didn't take a big wide right turn earlier were better for SW CT and NYC...they get more WCB precip on the front end whereas on the wide-right/hook back left solutions, the WOR crowd is relying more on pure CCB/deformation backing into them and they lose some of that front end precip.
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I would definitely be sh**ting in my pants if I was WOR, but I would be far from calling off a big solution there.
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Ukie trended better with the ULL closing off...just need to get this done a smidge sooner to crush all of SNE instead of just eastern peeps.
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I'm still pretty bullish for the WOR crowd....but I do wish we could go back to the days when we knew the GFS was full of sh** http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2013/20130205/AVN_6z/avnloop.html
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Jan 2005 is a really hard hurdle to clear for the upper Cape/PYM area...they literally got 35-40" widespread there in that storm.
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That's super close to being a LOT better....that was probably a step toward capturing a little better despite the southern stream not trending well. Still time to sort that part out.
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This may get a good tug NNW at the last second though....H5 is actually curling back a little more efficiently than 06z despite the other trends.
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GFS is dragging the southern stream through 33h compared to 06z. But northern stream looks a little better.
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Well it's pretty high resolutioon....even if it sucks, lol. The old NGM was the model that I could probably run on my high school graphing calculator.
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The WOR crowd probably has PTSD from Reggie absolutely nailing Jan 2015 right down to the Ginxy-ORH-495 band and then 8-14" of sand for western areas. I wouldn't worry too much about it at this point....maybe inside 48.
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Lol, you stole my line....I was gonna reply that hopefully it means the ICON super computer burnt out and can't be replaced.
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That would be even worse IMHO....it ends up historic for a huge area and you're one of the few screw zones that get 6". But hopefully that doesn't happen anyway....a NAM-esque solution would be pretty ridiuclous for most of the forum. The Cape peeps would get screwed a bit, but very few elsewhere.
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NAM will probably have a run that goes even further west....but it's going to be hard to get much more given the trough position.
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That is an amazing run...it is still absolutely hammering over NE at 84h too...that stall spot is pretty ideal.
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If it closes off south of us and captures a bit....yes, I think we'd probably see that.
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12z NAM will come west I think based on 42h...more southern stream and the northern stream is coming in a bit steeper.
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Unless this comes way west, it's going be a powdery snow there
