ORH_wxman

Have a few weenie flakes here too.

My old stomping grounds near Ithaca might get crushed. Esp those areas above 1000 feet. Pretty classic setup for them. I remember we got crushed on 4/9/00 out there during my freshman year.

If we go with an FMH/Cape track then I think 495 belt is in the game for at least a few pasty inches. Something a little west like PYM/EWB is prob more like Hubbdave up into Monadnocks and NW.

It’s been a pretty brutal stretch there the past 3 winters. At least last year was pretty good from my area to ORH and into interior RI/N CT….had a good December (sans the horrible cutter) and then a really solid period from 1/25 through about 2/20 with the signature 2/1 event that gave me 17” of paste. But you getting skunked in that one really put a damper on that period even though you did well in the super bowl event a week later. At least you got a HECS this winter…but yeah, kind of shitty outside of that event. If that BGM storm in mid-January had not taken the literal 1 in a 100 track, this winter would’ve looked a lot better. We would’ve added to the pack already OTG from 1/7. I still can’t believe that storm tracked like that. Lol….run that pattern another 100 times in the simulator and we prob get a KU in 90 of them.

Yeah I remember like circa 2007 and earlier when Kevin hated hot summers. Lol. My preference for snow hasn’t evolved though like others. I’ll take snow just about anytime and I still can’t stand hot and humid weather. Prob the only thing that has evolved in my wx preferences is in the fall, I don’t need it to flip cold right away. I used to want frigid Octobers but now I’m fine with 60F+ outdoor weather until mid November when snow threats become a little more realistic.

Also needs to track more like 18z NAM and not over BOS for anyone east of buried bodies territory in SNE/S CNE if we’re talking more than a couple inches on the front end. Once you get up into northern Cheshire county it becomes a little easier.

Yeah I hear you…but since it’s going to be cold regardless, I’ll take a little snow. I’ll take snow anytime of the year actually. Lol….I love the October snows when they happen and late spring snows.

Yeah it’s not raining above 1500-2000 feet there unless it’s for like 15 minutes at the beginning.

I don’t see the problem with snow instead of cold rain. It’s going to melt in like 4 hours. No leaf out yet so no tree damage either.

It’ll cut over your Fanny. We enjoy 40F rainstorm. Maybe you sector for an hour.

Nah, you’ll get smoked probably unless this trends into cutting up the CT valley (which is unlikely)

Yeah down below 200 feet you can prob just completely eliminate accumulations. Esp if outside the CCB intense banding. If you are under that, then I could see a few sloppy inches at 33-34F. But this isn’t a typical setup for late season snows. The ageo flow is too much out of the east. The antecedent airmass is pretty good though so can’t discount it altogether…esp in the interior elevations that are halfway decent with CAD.

I’d take it even further. You can prob even cut amounts by 60-80% in the blues…and more like 40-50% in the pinks/reds lower than 1500 feet elevation.

Yeah I’m tossing that solution for now but I’m hoping it verifies. Much rather have a bit of sloppy snow than a 40F rainstorm.

NAM’d at 18z. Nice 8-12 incher for ORH county.

Awesome news. Glad to hear he made it.

We bought our place in 2017 for 345k, could easily sell for 550-600k now. It’s asinine. But all the houses we would upgrade to are ridiculously expensive too now.

Even 3 weeks earlier this would be a nice setup I’m betting. Baroclinicity would be a lot stronger and hence the CAD.

I edited my post. Back to back years post-4/15…LOL….already 3 craft wine coolers in and he’s done. Ready to pull over the explorer on I-84

We had a warning snow event in the interior last year on 4/18…lol. edit: it was 4/16 last year. The 4/18 storm was in 2020.

There’s usually better baroclinicity in the winter too which helps intensify secondary mid-level centers which thwarts the SE flow and starts turning it more E and ENE. We don’t have that here.

Hopefully it keeps trending colder. It’s already doomed to be a dogshit day Tuesday. Might as well get some snow out of it. My guess is it ends up as mostly a frigid rain though.

That departing shortwave ahead of Tuesday’s system needs to slow down to give a good chance of snow over interior. It lifts out a little too fast which allows the Tuesday system to tuck in too tight and bring the low level flow out of the east and southeast.

At least we had yesterday

There aren't many birds that color around here that are also small, so I'd be surprised if it was something else. But yeah, Ginxy cell phone pixels FTL....too much white to be a black and white warbler. I guess it could be a lightly-colored mockingbird, but body type doesn't quite match.