ORH_wxman
-
Posts
91,523 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Late Dec 2010 to first half of Jan 2011 vibes. That doesn’t mean weenies should start expecting the same results because it’s not exactly the same and snowfall involves a lot of nuances anyway….but the large scale features are very similar.
-
Yeah i think roughly 12/7ish would be our first shot at anything significant. But there’s likely to be many more chances after that with that type of blocking present. I posted the 5 day mean h5 but even on the snapshot of the last panel, that blocking is going to town which would imply having favorable setups well into mid-month
-
I started posting on December in the December thread…November almost done and unlikely to see anything of significance the rest of the month
-
Model guidance continues to be consistent in showing the more interesting pattern after 12/5 Very good agreement between EPS and GEFS.
-
You must’ve had 6-8” in that one? Had 6” on winter hill. I remember driving up to Killington two days later and snow was still plastered to all the trees north of Sterling. All along rt 2 from Leominster through Athol was pasted.
-
There’s been a weak signal around 12/7-8ish on ensemble guidance the last couple runs. It would make sense given that temporary PNA ridging that spikes up while at the same time we have that arctic blocking showing a small relaxation after the initial plunge.
-
Not often you see 300dm anomalies at d15 on ensembles….on a 5 day mean no less
-
Bourbon has made a comeback in the past decade or so. I’m personally a scotch guy but I’ll drink a bourbon if it’s there.
-
Our classic SWFE/overrunners tend to just be cutters or inland runners that got rejected from cutting by a strong high to our north due to confluence….models frequently don’t see that type of confluence until inside a week. What makes the NAO blocking helpful is that it makes confluence to our north more likely.
-
Models almost always have problems in La Niña with high latitude blocking. I remember ‘10-11 was a really bad winter for model guidance. There’s always uncertainty but the magnitude of it can change a lot depending on the pattern. There’s a lot of blocking up there forecasted to materialize in the next week and that’s going to probably cause a lot of flip flopping….like we’re seeing on the EPS today. That’s a much colder look but it’s not surprising when you have Atlantic blocking of high magnitude.
-
I used to do DOT forecasts all the time….and I had the same experience. It varies greatly by town. Some town DOTs want to know about every flake of frozen precip that falls and others are like “meh, if I can’t plow it or it’s not an epic ice storm, I don’t really care”.
-
Also I think people get freaked out by the H5 maps on the EPS. They have a little more SE ridging than the GEFS but it’s still a cold pattern This H5 pattern Produces this temperature anomaly…
-
What am I missing? Ensemble runs seem pretty consistent. Too much beer on here last night?
-
Ahh ok so you saw Some epic winters (‘10-11 was amazing in HFD). But yeah, since moving back, been pretty ugly there.
-
In New England? No it’s fine…here’s the 850 temp anomalies. At or below normal for everyone here even on the EPS
-
Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking.
-
When was your first winter there?
-
I thought he was describing all of ginxy’s dog logs getting ripped against the fence during a good coastal gale.
-
I like this look on 18z GEFS. Cold and active.
-
Yeah I’d guess if the market produces incentive for more ski areas, the most likely mountains would be former ski areas that closed. Less work to do and probably less environmental red tape.
-
Yeah for a day trip I’d want to do something under 3 hours. S VT is in that range.
-
I’ll bet we still score something by New Years though…keep hope alive!
-
We should get a couple people to do a small day trip in the winter midweek. You can get some great deals midweek and I can play hookie a lot easier than my wife can (she’s a teacher). I don’t mind skiing solo at all, but it’s def more fun if you have another couple skiers if similar skill.
-
Yep...and I also wouldn't get expectations super high even when the pattern gets more favorable. I think the key takeaways should be: 1. Models have been very volatile 2. Even if that look develops, it's not a guarantee of snow events. Esp near the coast. 3. It's a good thing that no AK vortex is showing up. So if we get frustrated initially, there's a good chance we will have more shots going forward at our latitude as long as no piggy is showing up.
