We had two rounds of a transient pig....one early in the month (like first week)....and then another around Jan 15-18....but yeah, it hasn't been parked there for weeks like we typically see in torch patterns.
It looks like above normal after this next week, but that pattern shown on the ensembles seems like it would be prone to cold shots and probably some winter wx chances mixed in despite the overall being AN. The EPO ridge is still in place...it never reverts to an AK vortex.
We had like 50F and rain 36 hours after that epic Feb 2016 cold shot.
Hell, remember late Jan 94? I think we went from 0F to 50F in 12 hours. Actually I know you remember it because I recall you telling the story of that day’s progression…started with 4F needles and ended with steaming snow banks and fog.
You may be right. One of them had a trace and other was like 0.1” or something hilarious. Can’t remember which was which. I’ll have to look it up later.
Seems to happen a lot in the shit winters. Exception might be 2011-12…but even in that one we had a front ender in early March that dropped a few inches which ruined futility records in spots.
We haven’t had a really good arctic airmass during mid-winter since Jan 2019. We had a pretty good run from 2014-2019 with arctic airmasses but it’s been nada since then.
The Jan 1957 cold outbreak was the coldest temp on record at both ORH airport and at BOS Logan airport. Their previous cold records were at different locations that probably radiated better. The Feb 2016 cold outbreak was the coldest temps at each location since the 1957 outbreak.
But yeah, toss that -56…not credible. It isn’t recognized officially anyway. I think the state record is -40 in 1984.
Yeah winter hill is basically in Holden. About 200 yards past the top of the hill is the Worcester/Holden line. There’s often a big gradient across the city from the northern/northwestern part and the rest of the city.
But sometimes it’s more drastic and this is one of those times where it looks like two different climates
It is definitely frustrating to go like 4-5 seasons in a row below climo. But yeah, we had it coming. Between 2012-2013 and 2017-2018 (6 seasons), 5 of them were above climo for BDL. Only 2015-16 was below.
Yeah there's a reasonable chance at something next week...whether it's just a crap C-2" event or something more significant can't be determined. But I do think we'll have multiple shots starting with 1/31-2/1....and prob going all the way through 2/8ish.
Hopefully one of them is real...I'd enjoy a 2" event more if we already had a good pack....but otherwise give me a warning event.