ORH_wxman

I’m not sure if it’s going to be a consistent bias in modeling, but when you have very dense arctic low level airmasses in place, it’s a decent recipe for colder corrections on model guidance. Especially if you have some semblance of high resistance to the north or northeast. If you don’t, then that midlevel warm punch can scream in quickly. (Sometimes it does anyway) But it’s been a few winters since we had a lot of consistent arctic cold anchored over our region prior to storms coming out of the OH valley.

More daytime Thursday. First flakes might be just before sunrise down that way but most of it falls during morning/midday hours from southwest to northeast.

Euro tickled colder again. 3-5” on front end for just about all of SNE save for far SE coastal zones where it’s closer to 2”.

Pretty solid advisory snows on the front end all the way into SW CT. Then a period of IP/ZR before dryslotting. Decent little event if it can break that way.

Useless at this range though. I guess I’ll take it trending colder rather than the other way around but at the 66-72 hour range I’m still mostly just looking at the big boy models.

BOS at -7 that late would be crazy. BOS -7 at anytime of the winter is Uber rare. Even back during day of yore. So yeah..I’ll take the over too, lol. Logan BOS temps colder than -5: 1943: -14 1957: -12 1980: -7 2004: -7 2016: -9 2023: -10

Yes. Stratospheric vortex basically elongated by 120h and fully split by D7…then I posted D10 at the bottom. This might have ramifications for prolonging the blocking into late February and March if we get a full SSW with a clean split

Those were weeklies I posted in January and I’d say they’ve done pretty well. They never fully bought a February torch unless we were talking about some of the progs from maybe prior to January 15th which is getting way out into clown range even for weeklies. Weeklies were def hinting at a coldish gradient pattern which is why I was somewhat optimistic despite February often sucking in La Ninas. Especially once the ensembles were showing the same thing as we got closer. This one looked like it could stay cold enough for a lot of chances. I don’t think the weeklies completely foresaw the huge PV displacement that looks like will occur but they were keeping that PV lurking just N of Hudson Bay

What a crazy arctic configuration by mid month

Euro has been waffling back and forth a bit on this threat. 12z run made the primary more zonked again so not much snow at all for CT/RI…and maybe only a couple of inches this solution for the pike region. But if you back off just slightly on that primary intrusion, then you could easily go 4-8” too. Details to be ironed out.

Classic SWFE baking powder ratios. At least lower levels are nice and cold.

Def a period of IP/ZR but QPF won’t be prolific in this system so we prob don’t need to be worried about power issues, etc. But it will make driving and walking terrible.

There’s like 3 events that are total rip offs from Jan/Feb ‘94. Hopefully we can cash in.

Water content determines durability more than anything else. A smaller impact is internal temperature of the pack and crystal structure but those are overwhelmed by water equivalent. Melting and refreezing doesn’t add water to it. It’s different if you add ZR or rain into the pack and then freeze it. That will add water equivalent.

I’ll be happy if I grab 2” and then some sleet/ice before the dryslot. Most guidance does seem to triple point this over the cape/SE MA or thereabouts which would keep interior cold at the sfc. But this doesn’t look like a big snow producer really anywhere. Even up north it’s prob mostly advisory to perhaps some low end warning in a few spots.

I’d like to see euro go another tick colder, but yeah, we might get a net gain out of this if we can keep that triple point low coherent enough. 06z euro was like 2-3” for the pike region before the flip. Maybe just a smidge less for your area.

Yeah the weekend threat is becoming more and more coherent on model guidance. Looks colder than the mid-week threat but still plenty of ptype issue. Might be a longer period of sleet/ice after an initial thump. But we’ll see how that trends over the next day or two.

2” in Holliston. Looks nice covering the surviving old snow.

Interestingly right after I say that, snow growth improved a lot. Prob like 50/50 on dendrites now. Looks awesome in the lights.

Really coming down but not great snow growth. It’s like heavy dandruff with an occasional dendrite mixed in. Looks like a white fog outside.

A couple of decent bands already..one going from ORH county to NE CT and another in the CT river valley

Yep. My back porch is “3 season” except when I make it 4 seasons with the Woodstove. It’s nice though because that wood stove helps heat the rest of the house too when I have it going strong so the furnace gets a bit of a breather. Keep the nat gas bill down. Thinking 1-3” here. I expect any lollis to 4 to be further west and southwest of us.

Yeah it did. I’d like to see another tick but it did give a couple of inches on the front. This isn’t a very juicy system anyway though, so I’m mostly hoping we can get a few inches and triple point the sfc low so we get a net gain. I’m not setting the bar very high on this one. But there’s def a model war. GFS doesn’t even come close to sniffing freezing over interior…even where the snow flips to sleet/ZR.

Yeah looked a bit colder. Not buying it verbatim but maybe we can tick euro a little colder and at least get a bit of snow on the front end.

Weenie flakes here for the past 10-15 min. Really tiny. Almost didn’t notice them until I was outside getting firewood and saw them very diffuse in the spotlight.