ORH_wxman

Yeah it’s not that warm between now and Tday…some 38F rain/drizzle after the paste isn’t going to melt much if they end up picking up 3-4”.

You’d think after this many seasons in New England, he’d learn to understand CAD and not forecast like he’s still on Long Island. Amazing there’s no improvement.

Sleet wouldn’t surprise me to start where you are. Maybe some brief flakeage.

Looks about average-ish for Tday. Maybe slightly below avg esp over interior NW high terrain where weak low level CAA will be ongoing.

First week and last week are nice. Middle two weeks are meh…though some southern stream action may still produce a threat even if it’s not all that cold (see Dec 23, 1997 as an example)

Guidance pushed the core of the cold to the following week and then lingering into early December whereas about 4-5 days ago, it looked like the core of the cold was Tday weekend with potentially eroding cold late the following week. I know your post is more on the troll-y side but just posting this for those who are interested in the evolution of the changes rather than one-liners.

I don’t think any precip will have started by 8pm tomorrow. Looks closer to 10pm-midnight timeframe.

Pretty good chance you'll get at least 2-3 hours of steady snow. The question will be if it's heavy enough to produce more than a coating-1" I think....I'd not forecast more than that right now, but there is a small probability it goes moderate or briefly heavy enough to give a couple inches of paste. Gotta cool that lowest 1000-2000 feet...and that's where the rates become very important. Otherwise you get that 2 SM SN- crap at 34F that is glorified white rain.

Euro was def decently cold...I'd feel pretty good for at least a couple in N ORH county....whetehr someone gets 3-5" or something up there will depend on how heavy the rates are from like midnight to 4am.

12z GFS and 12z GGEM both have a couple of chances next week. Seems pattern is more favorable by then.

RGEM not quite as enthusiastic....more limited to N ORH county...esp Rt 2 elevated region.

3k NAM was similar too...sometimes it doesn't agree with 12km, but it does on the 12z run. Will be interesting to see if RGEM agrees too...if it does, then that would be a lot of mesos (if we throw in HRRR) agreeing with accumulating snow in that ORH to FIT to 495 corridor.

It's there on all guidance....starts off pretty dry in Mid-levels with this polar airmass in place prior to the precip so even though the high is retreating, there may be a few hours of steady snow as evap/dynamical cooling work in tandem to offset the WAA for a time. You want that good burst of precip though....won't be much snow if you don't get a couple hours of good precip rates. NAM has a little cross hair sig in that 495/pike region too, so if that is real, that would help with latent cooling. Good snow growth will latently cool more efficiently than crappy ice crystals falling into a warm layer in the BL.

12z NAM coming in a bit colder with that initial burst...shows accumulating snow for much of the pike region near and W of 495....we'll see if that trends at all over the next 12h.

You really want it one on top of the other for it to be classic split flow. The first image sort of has hints of one with those low heights hanging back to the SW but it’s not a classic look. The second image in my original post is closer. But you can see how in the more classic PDII image, because there’s split flow, you aren’t pumping a ridge into the northeast with that trough in the southwest. The ridge up top in western Canada is keeping the heights over the northeast much lower.

Second picture is more split flow because you have below normal heights underneath above normal heights out west. It’s not a perfect example though. If you want to see classic split flow out west, check out the days preceding PDII storm in Feb 2003

Yeah next week is the best it’s looked so far. We’ll see if we can time something. Either way I love seeing that western ridge reloading. We’re fighting the La Niña hangover but El Niño keeps trying to punch back…having a battle of those two might actually benefit us in December… You can see the really cold stuff around D9-10 But then it relaxes a little bit you still have a 50/50 look with southern stream active in the south…if you time this correctly, could have a good event in early December

Core of the cold moves east it seems after about D7-8. But this week isn’t exactly warm.

18z euro prob has a couple inches in N ORH county too.

I remember three stooges reruns on all the time when I was a kid in the late 80s and early 90s. GFS shows multiple chance in clown range. You don’t take any of them seriously but it’s nice to see the potential in the pattern. Should be a pretty good pattern for at least NNE snowfall…even without synoptic snows there’s prob gonna be some upslope and leftover LES stuff up there.

Even at 1,000 feet at ORH airport the avg high is 47F tomorrow…43F on 11/30. I feel like we go through this every November. Anyways…given the pattern shown, hopefully we can still sneak something in late month. At least an appetizer.

That week after Tday is looking more intriguing. Previously, we had the best cold coming in around Tday and the few days after with a cold (but moderating) pattern to close the month…but it seems the best cold will be that week now which helps increase the chances a little bit for a threat. Its still early for something big but can’t totally hate the EPS or GEFS look…

Euro FTW right?

The whole progression of the pattern slowed in the last few runs. At first it looked like the max cold was coming for Tday weekend, but now it’s definitely the following week. That actually may work in our favor if we’re trying to get a snow event in November.

I mean all you have to do is go back and look at the posts…cold rain was the most likely scenario.