ORH_wxman

3k had borderline advisory for area near MQE....gonna have to watch that. I'll actually be in Quincy tomorrow for work and I drive through Milton to get there.

He’s 5-posted so he can’t really get into responding to much. Blending is usually the way to go at this time frame…obviously we’ll know more on which one is “more correct” as we get closer.

Prob more a few days later than that.

Yeah that was the Dec 6th system we were originally hoping had enough room to amplify into a real storm....it's a very good shortwave which is why we still may see some snow despite it not getting the room it needs to amplify downstream ridging. We would've had a good enough airmass in place too.

I'm expecting a blog post from Ray by tomorrow morning on the event. He can title it "A Cranberry Bog Festivus".

I should have mentioned the immediate coast in places like PYM county might be rain issues because of the CF, but most of the land area is west of the CF, so it would be plenty cold to the west of that for snow. If we can punch some decent localized lift, the soundings are pretty decent, so someone could see a little surprise.

Those are the weeklies and that is the last week of the month, not week 2. Here's what the EPS shows for that Dec 13-17 period. You can see it's not all that bad. +EPO so it's not an arctic airmass type pattern, but enough wetsern ridging to give us chances if it came to fruition...as I said to Scott just a minute ago, GEFS is more hostile

EPS far more "favorable" (still pretty meh) in that period than GEFS. Kind of funny because about a week ago, the GEFS were more weenie-ish and the EPS was kind of meh for that period....now GEFS is a torch while EPS is still basically showing "meh"....would be nice to sneak something in there.

Wednesday morning for eastern areas could be first measurable for them....worth watching. We're saturated up to about the -12C layer with low level lift and of course we know along the coast, the salty air produces excellent snow growth down into the -8C or even warmer layer. The low levels are cold too so no rain issues....only factor will be if we can get a few hours of steady snow or if it;s just a few scattered snow showers that can't sustain.

Decent uncertainy in the Dec 14-20 timerange too....it's not a cold look, but it doesn't look like a furnace at the moment either. Some ensemble memebrs are torchy but others are actually near normal or slightly BN with a few snow chances. That period might define how many view the month overall....if we "Steal" a snow event in that week prior to the better pattern setting in, then the month would be viewed a lot better than waiting until later and hoping to get something....esp if the big snow events don't happen until January even if the pattenr becomes favorable in late Dec.

Fwiw, weeklies still showing a very favorable look for late Dec through the end of the run to mid-January.

Trolls can and should be banned...people who aren't here in good faith will be banned/5-posted/suspended....whatever. Differing opinions are great....but keep the discourse cordial and scientific.

Yeah 2-3 weeks out should always be treated with some skepticism....at least there's very good agreement right now though and that type of prog does match El Nino climo on some level.

If we have a low frequency standing wave near dateline by later this month, into January, then we want to root for MJO to be weak as we head later into winter....we'd prefer as little as possible disturbing the standing wave.

Yep. if the guidance was unanimous for warmth late month, you'd see hundreds of posts locking it in as definitely going to happen.....good sign that you've lost objectivity when that happens. It's fine to be skeptical, but it should be done both directions and using solid evidence. The reason for the milder outcome in mid-December versus a week or two ago on guidance is the MJO wave strongly progressing into phases 5/6 whereas previously it was dying back into the COD by phase 4. But the flip side of that coin is that we're likely to see phase 8 by 12/20ish, so better outcomes won't be too long after that. The bigger question going forward is how static is the forcing in the 8/1/2 region after that? Do we sort of get a standing wave there for a while to really rack up chances? Or does it cycle through within a couple weeks and we get another thaw mid-January....both are possibilities.

Yeah the cutter is very likely happening around Dec 10....beyond that is somewhat uncertain. Not a good pattern but not a total hopeless one either. Still looking good on extended guidance for late month....we'll see how that pans out, but it's kind of remarkable how consistent the weeklies and other longer range guidance have been about flipping to a much more favorable pattern in late Dec and then as we head into January. IT is likely due to very good agreement on all that guidance of the MJO heading into phase 8 by roughly 12/20-12/22.

Good lift in DGZ in the IVT. May have to watch for a sneaky low end advisory potential for E MA…esp just off the immediate water. Wouldn’t forecast anything yet but def keep it in the back of our minds.

It’s def kind of an ugly setup but for your area it’s going to be fine because it looks like the hangback IVT stuff is going to be optimal for the mountains. You’ll get plenty of leftovers even if the synoptic lift underwhelms.

Decent shortwave. That would prob produce snow for someone if it tracked like that on 12/6. Not expecting it though until other guidance gets more amped. I still think there’s a chance for something in the several days after that too.

Kevin always prematurely starts winter around Halloween. I pretty much saw unanimous meh Decembers in all the outlooks. But I’m actually thinking we might get an event or two this month. Late month looks good and I wouldnt quite sleep yet in that Dec 7-10 period either.

Little bit of split flow trying to show up over the center of the country on some of these runs so we may need to watch. Otherwise, yeah, might be a boring period in that 12/10-12/17 range…

Nothing yet in the Kp…I guess it’s supposed to spike quite a bit though.

But the rest of the run is pretty interesting. Lol

Yeah doesn’t even give NNE much except for some upslope farts on the back side. Too warm for most of the synoptic precip until well north into Maine.

Yes. Really good look for last 10 days of Dec and first 10 of Jan.