baltosquid

Speaking of graphics, really like purdue's snowfall climatology page: https://mrcc.purdue.edu/resources/climateTools/snowfallclimatology Snowfall days in this case being 1 inch or greater. But you can play with that. Can also check monthly snowfall. Sad seeing March and December become so weak. November of course is also basically extinct, even if it obviously was never really a snowfall month when it had been colder.

More like the left sideline. Straight Cancun laser, jeez.

Yeah if there's a bit of a delay on the second piece or the first piece moves out quicker, might have a better chance. I mean, less than 24 hours later as depicted, the GL low moves to a much better spot. But I'm sure 00z will be a total change anyway.

18z GFS swings a piece of energy round the back of the more powerful cutter on the 10th (though not a super aggressive cut, as there is some blocking), which then tracks more favorably for our area on the 11th. Verbatim too warm and you get lots of messy mixing but I wonder if with better spacing that could work for a small thing.

Put it all on black? No, put it all on p18.

Someone with panels wanna find the big dog in the GEFS for Jan 16-17? Quite an influence on the average I imagine edit: can see it in the mean mslp with members lol. Looks like it even tucks a bit. 1004 at OBX, 996 just off Ocean City, then 989 off central NJ

I was not confident enough to state it but I was thinking something similar. The blocking is there, and we’ve been complaining about a pacific look that left us fighting for NS scraps for the last month. That look gives us a chance at some actual southern energy I would guess. Temps would be the main issue but on an ensemble run that’s too far out to worry about temps. The right shortwave progression with a look like this could deliver the cold no problem.

CFSR 1981-2010 climatology vs ECMWF ERA-5 1991-2020

Looks like a coating on easy surfaces, nice little new year event.

12z GEFS doesn't contain any hints of further improvement for Sunday, unfortunately - all members suppressed from what I can see. Even with the organization of the storm trending better, there's no way it can turn the corner as depicted. An additional problem is that we don't have much cold to give here, so very little room to shake the suppression and not just end up warm.

Mid level changes leave room for continued improvement though I think, although the surface didn't change much this time. Might be a non linear sort of trend on the ground if we see earlier and stronger consolidation.

AIGFS came a bit north for Sunday but still well south. Overall the American suite has been on the side of strongest suppression for this one.

Trends are decent. Wish it was trending like this a day or two ago, though.

Sun is peeking out here too lol. Lots of blue in the sky

A few flakes in Canton. Looks like a thin stream of flurries is pointed at us.