VOLtage

Not April 27th bad. Maybe April 15th 2011 bad.

This was an absolute worst-case scenario with it being a strong tornado, late at night, and a heavily populated area. Praying for Nashville right now.

And poof... it's gone on the 18z run.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0033.html

Any sticking up there in Knoxville?

Not any yet (at least where I live). But there's a solid inch in the grass, and it doesn't seem to be letting up any time soon.

I can't wrap my mind around why NWS Morristown hasn't at least issued an advisory.

https://www.wbir.com/article/weather/the-national-weather-service-confirms-two-tornadoes-formed-friday-in-blount-county/51-b6ec5681-4a7d-4d80-8bca-a9d7f76fe9dc

The motion on the storm heading towards Crescent is incredible.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019 MSC057-095-140445- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190414T0445Z/ Itawamba MS-Monroe MS- 1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ITAWAMBA AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES... At 1130 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Detroit, or 10 miles northwest of Sulligent, moving northeast at 55 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Amory, Smithville, New Salem, Hatley, Gattman, Sipsey Fork, Quincy, Cardsville, Turon, Splunge, Wise Gap, Athens, Greenwood Springs and Parham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3417 8840 3415 8819 3383 8824 3388 8849 TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 202DEG 46KT 3399 8828 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...0.00IN

This is shaping up to be a major tornado outbreak.

Done

Day 1 Outlook: Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the south-central to southeast states through tonight. The most likely region for strong tornadoes is from east Texas to Mississippi, with the most dangerous period for tornadoes being between about 2 to 8 PM CDT. ...TX to TN Valley... No substantial changes to categorical areas with this outlook (beyond reducing area behind the convective line in TX). Surface cyclone near College Station should move northeast towards northwest LA and then across the Mid-South through tonight, as a warm front advances north from southeast TX/central LA. Parameter space is very supportive of supercells, with persistent warm-advection north of the front yielding a risk for large hail. Along and south of the front, main uncertainties are longevity and discreteness of favorable storm mode. A deeply moist boundary layer with upper 60s to lower 70s dew points will spread north, supporting preconvective MLCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg across southeast TX and southern LA. Such buoyancy will be quite favorable for all forms of severe, amid strengthening deep shear related to the approach of the mid/upper trough. Furthermore, low-level shear vectors and hodograph sizes will be quite large along and south of the warm front (from the Sabine Valley eastward), with forecast soundings yielding 250-600 J/kg effective SRH. Any sustained supercells in this environment will be capable of significant tornadoes. With time this evening and overnight, convection should organize into a roughly north/south-aligned band over the Lower Mississippi Valley region, as deep convergence becomes better-focused in the mass response ahead of the synoptic wave. As this occurs, the main threat in a bulk sense may become damaging wind tonight. However, given the strong inflow-layer SRH, tornadoes still will be probable from both embedded supercells and QLCS mesovortices. ...Central/eastern NC... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, offering the potential for locally strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail. Mid/upper-level support will be lacking, beneath a belt of southwesterlies aloft. But the region will straddle a low-level moist axis characterized by surface dew points generally in the mid/upper 60s F, supporting preconvective MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg. Though low-level flow will be weak, limiting boundary-layer shear and hodograph size, the height gradient will remain sufficiently tight aloft to support strong storm-relative winds in upper levels, and effective-shear around 40-45 kt. As such, a few organized multicells and sporadic supercell structures will be possible. Storm intensity will diminish after sunset.

Tomorrow's going to be nasty for East Tennessee (where I live unfortunately).

Keeping a close eye on the line of cells in middle/north Alabama right now. If they don't fizzle out, these could affect the East TN valley.

They had better get their act together on an active day like today.

Here's my recorded rainfall since 12:00AM this morning here in Maryville. Here's the recorded rainfall each day of the past week. Adding up the total for each day comes out to 8.52 inches of total rainfall over the past week with more to come tonight.

They just issued a PDS Flash Flood Warning for Knox county. The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Knox County in east Tennessee... * Until 130 PM EST. * At 1036 AM EST, emergency management reported heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 3 inches of rain have already fallen over the last 3 to 4 hours with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible over the next 2 hours. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Knoxville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Alcoa, Farragut, Louisville, Plainview, Halls, Blaine, Karns, Kimberlin Heights, House Mountain State Park, Lake Forest, Maloneyville, Mascot, Bearden, Powell and Seymour. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

There's tornado warnings and a winter weather advisory going on simultaneously in Southwest Missouri. I don't know if I've seen anything like that before.