Torch Tiger

Maybe a shower/storm next Tuesday?

that's a Q for one of the smart people. lol I have seen 80's dews here in NE, I'd guess PVD BDL and BOS have, noso sure about ORH.

I'd take the 108F personally, but if we can set record dews (80's) that would be fun

Yeah, like when it is 50 and COC all December into January without a flake of snow. We know it'll get cold in late January but by then, half of the winter is long gone.

You calling someone grumpy

the Euro ENS are pretty torch for that same time. Not to say they are correct, but plenty of evidence supporting torchy stretch.

imagine

18z gfs has a hell of a heatwave in the LR.

wow

@kdxken

glad we got what we got a few nights ago.

It was easy to see N MA and beyond would get porked, basically no CAMs had much north of route 2.

CAMs still smoking especially S and W New England later, not expecting much here though.

TTTE

for CT, most models I am looking at have at least .25 to .5" through 12z Sun

looks fine

* A approaching cold front will bring strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Saturday: SPC continues to include much of southern New England under a slight risk for severe weather, with the main threat being straight-line damaging winds. During the morning, anticipating mainly elevated convection with a threat of for locally heavy rain. During the afternoon, surface-based instability increases to 1000- 2000+ J/kg, with with 35-45 kts of shear, while a cold front approaches and passes through much of SNE. Ahead of the cold front, we maintain 1.5-2 inch PWATs, thus locally heavy rainfall is expected. This could produce urban and poor drainage flooding. It should be noted that with the 12Z CAMs, they have backed off some on the areal coverage of convection across SNE, will need to keep an eye on future runs. At this time, the greatest threat for severe weather looks to be across northern CT, thru central RI and SE MA in the afternoon/early evening.

Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place, with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints common. While midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, heating into the 80s F will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer flow will remain mostly unidirectional, though increasing speeds with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear magnitudes across the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. As a result, organized supercells and bowing clusters are possible. Steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values, combined with rather weak low-level shear will favor damaging gust potential. Modest lapse rates and somewhat warm temperatures aloft will limit the large hail potential, but any organized/sustained supercell could produce marginally severe hail.

Tuesday looks interesting!

87.3! let's go!

Temperatures... An unremarkable temperature forecast for the extended forecast period, with no big intrusions of especially hot or cold air expected. 850 mb temps hover around 12-13C each day which will lead to surface highs in the 80s each day, perhaps a bit cooler behind Tuesday`s shortwave. oh only 80's

bang this tomorrow, great song