Torch Tiger

Hope everyone enjoys the 95-100 on Sunday!

Need 10% tor or 30% wind/hail probs for ENH, iirc. Maybe NNE? Doubtful for SNE I'd say. Actually Sunday may have a better chance of a more widespread wind/squall line type deal? Temps in the 90's, 50kt h7 winds and front coming in.

Yeah much better chances, but at least we still have the remnant EML showing up (and decent hodos). If something gets going it'll be pretty good.

92.9 for the high, great day!

...Northeast... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over western/northern NY during the morning. Cloud breaks and strong heating east of this convection will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon. A seasonably moist airmass featuring upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints will become moderately unstable. The erosion of a weak cap will likely occur over the higher terrain of VT/NH and near the front over central NY with scattered storms likely by early-mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show effective shear 25-45 kt supporting organized storms, including bands and probably several supercells. The main threats will be damaging gusts and large hail, but an isolated tornado risk could also materialize over New England where shear will be strongest. This activity will likely move to the coast by the evening.

12z gfs is loaded with threats! let's go!

Thursday looks fine.

yeah, the expectations were it would be meh. It lived up to the potential

Thursday

Today was trash

Hopefully Thursday provides some decent storms.

Ugly

last few frames were interesting for sure.

yeah, one in south-central NH too.

I think that was a moderate risk that day, and almost nothing developed. Cape was like 1000 j/kg, skinny though, ml lapse rates were horrid and cloud cover prevented much destabilization.

this reminds me of that 6/1/10? event that crapped out.

what a dew

interesting to watch the radar returns wash out as they touch the south coastline.

Active week upcoming!

Yeah nice little storm by MHT/Londonderry

Let's goooo! Think the better shot for strong/severe storms comes Thursday as a mid level lapse rates are around 6-7 degrees Celsius per km and similar low level lapse rates to Wednesday. Will see MUCAPE values between 1000-2500 J/kg with deep layer shear in the 30-50 kt range with the cold front moving in. Still a bit early to dive too deeply into the exact hazards, but think there could be a severe risk here especially given the latest CIPS Severe Analogs. Stay tuned to future updates. Threat Guidance for 20220716/0000 Run Probability of Severe: 61.2% Climatological Frequency of Severe: 8.72% Significant Atmospheric Fields 1. 2m-mb TMP 2. 0-mb CAPE 3. 2m-mb SPFH 4. 500-mb TMP 5. 850-mb SPFH Top 5 Most Similar Analogs 1. 19980725/0000 2. 19910718/0000 3. 20030715/0000 4. 20140709/0000 5. 20130828/0000

Bring 'er in please! A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, a reservoir of low-level moisture over parts of the Midwest, agreement/consistency in models showing the strength and evolution of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance, all combine to yield sufficient confidence in the notion for a concentrated area of severe-wind producing thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Tuesday (day 5). Considerable uncertainty exists by the end of day 5 into day 6 to preclude any downstream highlights.

Maybe some iso stuff CNE/NNE? wind field is kinda crappy though.

Thursday will probably be a decent severe day.

Plenty of time left