Torch Tiger

yea, thank God it is rain and not snow.

Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution. interesting discussion

Crushed.

The lightning must be insane on the Tolland mastiff right now.

hopefully the N part of this congeals, looks ugly N of ORH/BOS. A few strikes showing up by Gardner now.

Getting a light rain shower. Had a few claps of thunder with the storm in NE MA but that stopped.

watch issued, can't find the disc though

Yeah, still bumping up though. looks better across WNE again today.

didn't look at any soundings but the spc mesoanalysis shows >1000 j/kg mucape over most of SNE

any damage?

BOX Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Looks great for central CT. Multiple rounds coming?

Congrats

basically nada here

Fine, I'm just saying the odds of getting anything good this far north are low.

its all way south of us today. next

No charts?

Doesn't look like much relief honestly, maybe a slight dry down but no crisp Canadian airmasses in sight.

let's go!

cams look decent

Ggem is a bit NW too. Looks wet

If the gfs and Euro are anywhere close to correct, we'll have some severe weather chances D8-10

Cool and damp enough to see my breath. sheeeeesh

Bring those dews