Ruin

Just now, jayyy said:

It literally just formed. 

some one stated that nj ny will get hit harder on where it formed so did it form more south west?

so the new Low is now even more south west from where it was forecasted to form?

love how abc27 downgraded what they think will happen with the snow. yesterday they were calling for 8-12 now they are calling for 4-8 we all ready have about 5 inchs give or take. yet its going to snow for the next 30 hours. even if you low ball it at .25 a hour thats another 7.5 inchs. 

is this in total or addition? 

whats up with the euro

Just now, Bob Chill said:

With snow, it usually means upper level energy is moving in and pockets of lift/dynamics are doing what they do. Upper level energy often pummels new weenie's brains because a blank radar = nothing happening at all for many hours. But there's plenty of available moisture in the column for precip. Just no mechanism to wring it out. Then energy moves overhead way up at 15k' or more snow starts seemingly out of nowhere. Like a miracle really. But if you understand 500mb vort and height panels it's not a miracle at all. It's expected. Not saying you should know this in any way shape or form because vast majority here dont. Tonight wont have a lot of that magic.  Just remember this post during our next legit upper level system and make fun of weenies on the verge of suicide. 

If you want a visual, click through the 500mb vort panels on the nam and check out the closed circle over OH as it approaches and starts sending orange and yellow swirly things over our heads. The redder and oranger and swirlier, the more energy to work with. It's not nearly that simple to forecast but its a good way to understand what your seeing on radar. 

I know what your saying but ive seen it in the summer time too. its raining at my house and radar shows blank. then 20 mins later it shows something to the east of me. or when im star gazing for the meteor showers forecast is for clear skys and clouds roll in but on the satellite no clouds. this happens with both the summer ones and the winter ones.

Just now, jayyy said:

Anyone in far NW dc? Looks like a solid band just popped overhead. 

sometimes when echos just vanish or just come out of no where I wonder if the radar wasnt just acting up sometimes and not picking it up or late in showing it drying up

wasnt the storm that crush central and south central PA a few years back a miller b? weather channel called it juno I think it was in 2011?

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Here in Western PA we've gotten like a coating to quarter/half inch. 

how wet or dry is it? does it look powdery ?

I just dont understand with virga overhead most of the night since midnight my dewpoint lowers instead of going up.

any one seeing any thing yet in PA my dewpoint went from 16 down to 11 last time i checked. I dont understand that since i have had returns overhead since midnight. so still dry went from 23 around midnight to 28 at 6am 

13 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Better then 18z

hmmm I thought they said it would be all over by late monday night around 10 for my area. this looks like it goes through a good part of Tuesday morning 

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

dang saw this as soon as i posted about philly and having so much liquid 

3.4 liquid for philly that has to be some mix setting up right?

12 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Let’s see what 6z has to say. The ole 6z//.. Notorious for depicting QPF laden bombs and clown maps within 36 hr, just to pull back at 12z. 

Man. Wish we had a LITTLE more consistency in solutions, but it’s hard when the models are trying to handle part 2 of a storm when part 1 is nowhere near the area and there’s so many moving parts associated with this setup. Miller b’s are tricky. They can’t bite us to the NE... but when they pan out....it’s a thing of perfection. 

I feel the same way models say this this this then one model out of no where closer to the event says oh not. then forecast for me says fri will be 52 how can you even forecast that when the models have problems with a storm 48-72 hours out.

Imagine if this storm was at least a double phased system or at least stronger.

yeah not buying that shift that much south. the surprising feature has weakened so much lately 

So i have a question what is the dark redish bullseye in PA mean

So im guessing no storm for this up coming thursday the 28th?

wow very underperforming the radar is all about dried up. forecast was for this to last till noon tuesday I hope you all did better.

this is just a sad joke 

One thing I dont get is how far west the primary L is as it transfers to a secondary its. I think it was in IN and it transfers off the coast I never seen a Low transfer that far. I just dont buy it I never seen that before.

maybe true but in 96 I got another big snow even bigger then 93. 93 for me was like 25 inchs 96 was 28. but the overall coverage I think went to the 93 storm. Also for march the storm had like 2 weeks of crazy cold weather.

I remember super storm 93 they forecasted this big snow storm almost 2 weeks out. then a week out they were calling for a blizzard. Makes one wonder how they could forecast that accurate a week out back in 93. Now its like they cant tell you whats going to happen they say its to early to tell on a lot of news stations. 

I cant recall when was the last time we had a double or triple phaser was it juno back in 2011?