Ruin

We are now back to a mix some sleet frz rain a little snow. this makes me think I know why we end up having sleep frz rain cause the air it falls through is above freezing then goes back below freezing. but how does it end up snowing sleeting and frz rain all a the same time? I never heard a legit explanation or any for the matter on this. Normally they just say when its all snow its or all sleet or all frz rain and show the graphic of the freezing column.

1 minute ago, Flatheadsickness said:

I have been out all night posting pics  It may have not snowed a ton but it snowed well after the first so called dry slot I saw no rain or sleet in the harrisburg area untill around 7:00am on radar or with my eyes.   No offence my man  

 

I was talking about radar. looks like on radar the ice moved in at 5 or so. if you go back and look at the radar our eastern side was dry slotted. In this radar the first few frames you see how bad the eastern half looked. I dunno where I can find a radar link going back longer tho.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast-region/weather-radar?play=1

yeah only reason we didnt stay snow longer was damn dry slot. im not even turning on my local news to hear this met pump himself up saying I told you so about low snow numbers. He didnt even forecast for the dry slot. this one was different tho instead of the south west dry slot getting me that filled in at the same time to eastern side of precip for what ever reason decided to just dry up and say nah im out,

morning all looks like I was right when i posted last night about the dry slot ****ing us lol. every time a storm liek this dry slots us by the time the precip starts again its ice but looks like we skipped sleet and wet to frz rain. the ice started way earlier to. originally my snow was forecasted to stick around till 12-1

big damn surprise over eastern PA includding Harrisburg snow shut off look at radar yep it dried up. the damn weatherman was right again on us only getting 2-3 inchs over night. just cause of dry slotting lol im going to bed.

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The precip is filling in to our south & approaching rapidly from the west. I think we will not have any trouble with a dry slot here in PA.

true its back building over ohio and points south west. but every time we are in this set up if we get dry slotted its game over for the snow. it either goes over to ice or rain depending on the temps and im still at 32. i was hoping some heavy precip would cool us off more then 1 degree.

if you guys look to our south west and that dry slot in wv parts of md. if when that hits us and stops snowing the temps will bump up by the time we get precip back it will be sleet frz rain. ive seen it happen to many times. to keep the snow the longest we cant not get dry slotted.

i nice band on radar over harrisburg nice deep blue set up. can confirm mod/heavy snow

hmm radar expands then goes dry in my area for the last 4 hours. looks like this storm will be late getting started in my area. I should say phase 2 is late getting started.

41 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The totals in the current forecast do not include what fell last night into this morning.  Their current snowfall projection maps indicate a start time of this afternoon.  Also, it is very likely that LSV is into the change / mixed precip before or by 12Z Tuesay (7:00AM).  So you are basically looking at the next 12 to 14 hours for accumulating snowfall to reach projected amounts.  Sun needs to set and rates need to pick up to drop temp below 32.  I'm currently sitting at 32.9 and have been above freezing for the past 5 hours.  Peaked at 33.7 before dropping back down.  My 1.8" of snow from overnight has melted to less than 1/2 remaining.

still find it odd that the nam gives me so little when the nws upped the totals for me to 3-6 more likely higher then the lower amounts. vs just 2 days ago where this was said to be mostly rain but all the mets on tuesday.

lol is this in total for both phases of the storm? cause i all ready have slightly over 2 inchs. its forecast to snow from about 430pm till 12pm 1pm tomorrow before change over. thats almost 24 hours. some snow is said to be mod to heavy bands. I doubt we only get 2.2 inchs unless the mother of all dry slots hit us. oh damn i did it we gonna get dry slotted. btw im talking about the new nam 

havent had a real lul here we will go 30 mins without snow then a snow shower or light snow for a hour hits no real accumulation. a tick above freezing at 33 the forecast tho was for 36 gonna bust low  esp when the snow moves in temps will drop a few im thinking.

are the temps going to rise tonight at all? or is the warm push only for tomorrow?

not sure where my last post went but here goes. 2 inchs over night into this morning looks like the radar is breaking up sadly. my niece was on a 2 hour delay then school was called off most likely wont go tomorrow either with the way the forecast is. she all rdy has off friday for in service and monday for a holiday. shes gonna have a nice extended break off this week.

my niece was just called off school after a 2 hour delay. most likely wont go tomorrow either. she all rdy has a in service this fri and off next monday for the holiday. so far about 2 inchs 

7 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The "impression" you get from NWS point n click is that another quarter to half inch of "liquid" falls in the overnight period.  I think that part is totally bogus and the storm is like you said, some light showers.  I guess I'm just picking apart what it says, which I think gives the impression that a fair amount of liquid rain is going to fall Tuesday evening and overnight.

from looking at the future radars and maps looks like from what i see unless it changes most falls as frozen maybe 1 1/2 hours as rain to 2 1/2 hours give or take. but like i always say models are normally meh. it comes down to real time forecasting at this time.

oh on top of every thing else radar is looking more juicy atm then i think modeled?

13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

0z NAM at 34 hours v. 0z HRRR which went out to 34/36 hours. Depending on the source of the model run, the NAM had both sleet and zr as dominant transitional types. TT had a widespread extended period of sleet across most of the central counties while Accuwx's ptype map has a ton of freezing rain, which the above pivotal weather map seems to be reflecting. 

I honestly think some of these models/maps with the change over earlier runs from early sun and last night are gonna bust bad. I think the change over to snow takes a bit longer and we stay sleet frz instead of going to all rain. i still think we will see a hour or 2 of just rain. but the way some things are setting up even tho we have a cutter to the west looks like a colder solution will be the way things go.

11 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

With that much sleet you would have to forgo building a Snow Man and chose to go with a Sleet Stack instead.

hah i see what you did  couldnt do any thing really Tho it was fun sledding but if you fell off down the hill you got road rash.

15 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

0Z Nam really gung ho on freezing rain.  Not sure I believe this but not a map you see every day.  Some of this has to be sleet.  General 3-6" snow and then 12-15 hours of ice!

 

I want to say it was 1996 we had a sleet storm that looked like a snow storm. 4 or more inchs of sleet it was crazy but it was drivable but it was a slow go cause we had 2 inchs of snow before hand.

 

7 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

What’s the consensus, Is there going to be a break between rounds and if so when does round 2 start ?

well the way the radar looks atm its going to be hard only to get 1-2 inchs of snow over night best time to fall. future radar I saw doesnt really break it up at 6-7am like every one is saying. its about 11am but that was a few hours ago I saw the future radar could have changed. but i could see a outside chance this turns into one long duration event. no real breaks. id give it a  %5 chance at that tho.

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Welcome, Ruin. I am the resident warmanista of the forum, largely due to my career as a commercial driver, but I do like snow when it's a big event. That being said, kick off your shoes and spend your time with us. We may not be as active as those in the forum to the south of us, but we are friendlier!

Yeah its nice when you dont have to go any where either. or jobs who force you to go into making you feel as if call off they will find a reason to fire you.

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I can throw a rock from my house & hit the river. 

Also, I think they will be adding some counties later on to the Advisory.

yeah the whole advisory or watch per county is stupid. a storm system doesnt know where the county line is. Ive seen times when one town city in a county got 10 inchs and another one got 2.

thanks for the welcome as i said in the other forum to me all my life PA was the Mid Atlantic Not sure when it changed lol. but yeah the radar look way more juiced then it was called for and temps being below forecast could be a good front end thump.

I guess a lot changed in the last 20 years since I was in school. in 93 I was off for 2 weeks from the blizzard and cold. then a few other days here and there from other snows. we didnt get out of school till almost july. If memory servers went to school till like the june 20th or some where around that time.