Ruin

When are models not wonky lol

I so love how models not only waffle from 1 operational run to the next from hundreds of miles to thousand of miles. Id really like to know what changes so much from 1 model run to the next to make such huge changes instead of the next model run slowly trending to that next solution. Ie a costal that goes right to a lake cutter on the next run. I wish we would get more feedback from what changed. btw i used the costal to lake cutter just as an example from what has happenend before.

Nothing it's dry now temp bumped up from 36 to 38

Every time they claim rain ending as snow it never happens back side always drys out. Winds rev up ground drys up temps down get as low as forecasted. I dunno why they even say rain ending as snow for south central PA it never pans out

Temp for you? After all the rain surprised with how wet it is your ground is caving

forecast low was 28 we only got down to 34 thanks to cloud cover

ok thats a change cause late fri it was showing upper 40s for my area in Southern PA

That's why lol all the weather around me is always so much colder thry say high of 40 we get to 44 etc they say snow it's rain

Not in the area I'm in yesterday it was 41 today. at 11am it was 43 I'm not in middletown center I'm just outside it by 2 miles

Yeah how are my highs near Middletown higher today after the arctic front goes through then they were yesterday go figure right

haha what a damn joke temps were said to be in the low 30s tonight but temps rose up and what ever bit of precip we got tonight was just rain haha. this is sad so called artic front wont even do jack for temps are suppose to be near 40 again next 2 days

so any idea what changed from the 1 model run to the next one to change that much?

Can some one explain too me how 2 days ago we go from cold/dry to maybe a snow storm over the next 7 days. A coastal low/slider just to the south then the next operational run we have a lake cutter and rain all the way to upstate ny and temps in the 50s and after the even 40s when before it was the mid 30s? what key information did the new model run see that had the storm jump thousands of miles back to the west into the lakes?

Big surprise a costal low southern slider turns into a lake cutter lol

If we get no snow from this cold it will be a waste of cold air

so not only didnt it get to the high of 66 like forecasted still 58. This up coming weeks temps were now pushed 10-13 lower from what was just forecasted last friday for next week. I saw near 70 for a few days now highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

I find it more and more they are wrong over the temps low or high then they have ever been before the last 10 years or so.

I feel like they are wrong more often then right about temps

this is the main reason why I just dont trust forecasts/forecasters esp during the winter months. Just like back in the second half of feb that big cold outbreak the temp guidance kept saying was coming got pushed back pushed back and then nothing. Nothing is done when they make huge mistakes it feels every time they upgrade a model they get worse. yeah sure they may have a few storms they get right. but what is the actually accuracy lvl of forecast models? Anywhere I can look that tells me how accurate models are including the temp guidance model?

So much for that cold front we had early fri. My temps yesterday and today are about 8-10 higher then forecasted sitting at 62 when my forecast was 53????

lol I thought when a cold front goes through the next day should be colder? it was 58 fri for me and today 62 not really a cold front was it

lol I dont think that last snow map will even happen any where close in PA maybe ere maybe.

i guess its time for bugs humidity and tstorms soon. At least we got some snow this winter

winter is over sadly at least it was better then last year.

yep no way any of that really lays. it would be a messy wet snow that maybe would take down some trees. ground lvl temp is at 41 throw my thermal camera.