Cary67

8 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Curious to see what tonight's runs have to say about the  ~160 hour threat. At a minimum, the ICON plays ball. 

Euro and GFS show system for OV and the EC

9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ENS finally showing changes...

Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region.

Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas.


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1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

Hahaha. I can't tell if runs like this are why I hate this hobby or adore it. 

Nice picture. Did you paint that yourself? 

On 11/26/2019 at 4:33 PM, Cary67 said:

To be expected. Snowy Novembers lead to snowless Decembers. 

Looking good early.

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north.  The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.

Trending towards the garbage model

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Come on, where is the optimism?  

I will take the over and say that ORD will be comfortably into double digits by the end of the month.  

I guess close to 9.6" means within a few inches. If were sitting at 11.2" at end of the month I wont feel the prediction was wrong. If were sitting at 17-20" then yes.

Average snowfall for ORD at the end of December is 9.6" Thats probably close to where you will be by the end of the month for a seasonal total. Especially since 1st half of the month looks to be a shut out.

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

 Our climo is a joke...and this is the crap that happens when your normal high is around 40. Highs in the mid 20s should be a typical seasonably cold day, as the days are short and we’re in December...but unfortunately a day like that is just as likely as a day in the mid 50s. We fight climo all winter.

We shouldn’t need to have a million indices go right to get snow and cold. The calendar should be enough. Not saying we need 4 feet of snow and subzero temps...but at a minimum, 5” of snow each week with highs 25-35, and crisp mornings in the teens. Nothing crazy...just typical winter weather. Then an occasional good week with a foot+ of snow and some subzero mornings. 
 

It’s maddening to go even 3 days with average daily temps above freezing and no accumulating snow and no snow pack...and then 3 days becomes 5 days, 5 becomes 8, 8 becomes 12...and before you know it, 3 weeks are wasted when the days are shortest. So so so so tired of it. Why do we hope for winter in our area, with our unbearable climo? Of course we can occasionally have big storms and periods of wintry weather...but winter is supposed to be a season, not disjointed 

Expecting weather thats not normal is always tough sledding.pun intended

58 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

See my above post.  Wow.  Lol

I had to and directly below your post.lol. Even though the sample size is small snowier falls have led to below average snow years at ORD

5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +.

Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

To be expected. Snowy Novembers lead to snowless Decembers. 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Quality soaker this am

A preview of the upcoming pattern

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Lock it in

Pineiro says wide left

Toasty 6F this morning 

Will be out later to measure but the eye test says about 3-4".

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty small sample size though.  It would be interesting to look at November and how x total by a certain date or the end of that month does.  At some point it becomes difficult to prevent an above average snow season if you rack up a lot early.

Would agree simple size probably not large enough to draw any real conclusions 

4 hours ago, Baum said:

I sure hope all this cold and snow early isn't a jinx on the main cold season. Although, it didn't matter in the late 70's. But those are the only winters I recall an early start that stuck.There I said it.

Skilling weighed in that question.

Back patio ledge 6"

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

3.5” here as of a bit ago.

2.3” past 2 1/2 hours.


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Amts.  vary drastically depending on where I'm measuring. Back ledge of patio wall 6" whereas driveway and grass 2-4".

Just enough to cover grass

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Under very heavy returns, yes. Otherwise it’s sleet

Still rain/ sleet here

I would assume all the models coming in for tonight through tomorrow can be tossed as well. At least in terms of those totals.

Should manage a few inches out in the fox valley as long as it doesn't continue trending SE

Have to say most years the springs around here are just bad. It's been wetter than usual but the standard one nice sunny 65F day followed by mostly cloudy, rainy, 40s and low 50s is awful. The switch is coming though. About 3 weeks from now and click Memorial Day and temps jump from 40s,50s and a few 60s to 70s and 80s. 

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'm pulling for this one to shift south...I'm always in for historic/record events.

As of now, looks like agreement on 6"+ getting into the northern tier across N. IL.

Say it ain't so.

4 hours ago, NegativeEPO said:

wow, finally a decent warm-up!

 

Oh wait, it's Spring 2019... back into the trash cold a couple days later that will probably lock in for the rest of the month. Barely into the 40s lakeside... absolutely brutal stuff.

 

 

 

GFS isn't any better. In fact, it's showing possible record cold towards the end of the month into the beginning of May. I've accepted that this is the new normal now though. As the arctic continues to warm at an alarming rate, the midwest/east will be its dumping ground for cold. Warming waters combined with melting sea ice contributes to the non-stop ridge that has been present in Alaska and the Arctic, and that ridge forces the cold south. The cold has to go somewhere after all, and it takes direct aim at us... ALWAYS. As the rest of the planet continues to warm, average temperatures in the eastern CONUS will continue to decline, to the point where April snows (possibly even May snows) might become a common occurrence. Again, this is all related to climate change and a warming arctic/melting ice caps. Its effects are already irreversible, so we may as well accept it at this point. It will only get worse as time goes on too, perhaps even catastrophic at some point.

This post is great. It belongs on an SNL Debbie Downer skit.