Cary67

Not sure but so far 6Z NAM and other short range guidance SE of GFS also. NAM was correcting NW but was further SE to begin with

6Z GFS back NW a bit

This is usually the timeframe short range models like NAM, RGEM diverge from globals. In this case SE of GFS, 12Z Euro. CMC did shift SE wouldnt be surprised to see readjustment back the other way a bit. NAM is just too volatile to put much credence in. It has had drastic shifts with previous systems right up to go time.

23 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Lookin like our first solid 4-8” decent ratio true winter snowfall with no mixing concerns. Bout time.

Plenty of time for things to go wrong.

NW fringe of things just a tick or two readjustment SE knocks NW burbs out. Not expecting much unless models come in stronger NW

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

CMC so close to an ALEK dumping.

 

Nice lake enhancement there

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I've seen the Sun maybe twice in the last 2-3 weeks. Garbage. 

Yeah but think of all the money your saving on sun glasses and  sun tan lotion

Expect Euro to cave to other guidance. Metro Chicago going 0 for 4 on waves with exceptions of areas far SE may see some accums. UKMET if verifies will tighten up that band of accums knocking out margins. Will see if the OV pink maps end up verifying to the same degree as our systems this winter.

50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Still not a single storm, as it occurs in 4 different waves.

Single storm idea, which iirc was only shown by one GEM run, is probably out of contention.


.

The last wave being almost a week out. It could end up as eventful as the one coming up Mon -Tue.

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

So... Mon night-Tue morning is dead and gone. Tue night-Wed morning is trending towards DOA. Wed evening-Thur morning looks good for somewhere in the area. Thur is the final potential wave, but may or may not occur, depending on how the trough and ejection evolves.

Cluster**** as expected.


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Basically the GFS shouldnt run out further than the UKMET of 144hrs

Solid coating here

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Not that anyone cares about what winter should be...but it has been a complete joke in pretty much the entire Lower 48, with respect to getting more than 1-2 days of cold weather at a time.  I am reading in other sub-forums how there is no cold weather too; it's happening everywhere, not just here.  Usually, when one region is mild, another is cold...but not this year.

At ORD, in the 75-day period since November 15th, there have only been 11 days with a low temp colder than 19F.  That is ridiculous.  Even in our horribly bad climo, you'd expect about 50% of the days to have low temps colder than 19F...and it "should" be 75+% if we had anywhere close to a decent winter climate.  Most winter mornings should be colder than 19F.  Not 11 out of 75.  It's not even in the same ballpark compared to what it should be.

And, only 2 days in the single digits.  No sub-zero days.

Where is the cold air?  Where are the clippers?  I don't think there has been one clipper all winter, for anyone in our subforum...or in the entire Lower 48.  Am I missing something??  What is happening??  I know someone will chime in and say "we've had winters like this before"...but that only makes it worse, because it reinforces how bad our climo is.  I which people would stop with the sugar-coating.  It's ok to admit that something is bad.  We should all unite in our complaining, as opposed to arguing whose snowfall call is right 5 days out.  The result is what matters...and if it's not winter-like, who cares.

 

These posts belong in some classics folder for the Lakes/OV forum. So vintage... never stop posting they bring too much joy.

6 hours ago, hlcater said:

Rainer

Always interesting to see how repetitive storm tracks and patterns can be. Our area will be wet but close to rain /snow line again like many systems this winter.

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

next rainer on tap for the 4th/5th

Yeah baby

On 1/25/2020 at 4:59 PM, Snownado said:

I am beginning to wonder if we see the sun again this month. I dont understand why even the dry days have to be cloudy. Is it really that difficult to get one sunny day a week ?

This time of year arctic air masses bring the sun. Hence not much sun this month

37 minutes ago, Baum said:

I for one, am more about chasing the model runs for a full 5 days to burn off a work week. Not discounting the entertainment on this board. I'm past the days of depression over the abject failure of a storm to produce IMBY. Positive take; driveway doesn't have to be shoveled, it's Saturday and I can watch college hoops all day. Who's starting the next storm thread?

I think your right. You need to enjoy the chase and the journey moreso than the end result. Also I may joke at times but I enjoy the banter as long as its good natured and redirected towards keeping on weather mostly. Maybe something to follow Feb.4th timeframe?

Band must have narrowed and lined up west toward Rockford. Not much additional accumulation since around 11pm. Maybe 3"

23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

There were already ~1.5" totals in McHenry Co as of Around 

Around 3" here

Flakes mixing in here in Crystal Lake

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

lol, it's kinda happening

"Don't piss down my back and tell me its raining " Outlaw Josey Wales

9 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Long shots hit eventually no matter how many horses die 

Meh, never a long shot to predict a non event or low ball totals. Have to admit with rain pouring down this has the feel of 1" of backside slush

28 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

RAP looking uglier than even i expected

 

 

The drum is beating faster. Hoping on that 12Z Euro collapse

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Has been just north of both of us all night...




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We had about another inch. Will say 2.0" total for both waves

Big flakes coming down now

Regardless of what falls this will be the measurement.lol

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

An outlier?